Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2002

LOOKS LIKE WE ARE LOCKED INTO A RATHER COMPLEX...MUDDLED DISTURBED
PATTERN WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE PRESURE GRADIENTS THROUGH MOST
OF THE REMAINING WEEK. THE PERSISTENT ELONGATED TROUGH...EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS PRODUCING A GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ROTATION
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR VERO BEACH...WITH WEAK
RIPPLES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH. ONE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF WITH ANOTHER MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HAVE ALL OF THIS WELL IN
HAND...WITH POPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY...AND I WILL MAKE MAINLY
COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE MORNING PUBLIC FORECAST PACKAGE.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO MAJOR CONCERNS WITH FIRE WEATHER.
THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AS PRESSURES FALL TO
THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING S/WV OUT OF GEORGIA...AND
THIS TREND HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT MARINE FORECASTS.

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

DUVAL