Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

CURRENTLY: THE DISTURBED SEA BREEZE DESIGNATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON
APPEARS TO BE WORKING OUT QUITE WELL...WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS AND NOW
SOME ALTO CU STREAMING IN FROM THE S ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY TO
THE S. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN OUT...THIS IS DEFINITELY
DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE...AND WILL CUT DOWN ON
MAX TEMPS A BIT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DISCUSSED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...STILL EXPECT STRONG CONVECTION WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO
BREAK OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE EXTREMELY LIGHT.

MODELS/ZFP: STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA AND AVN ON
THE HANDLING OF THE GULF UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROF TO THE E. THE
AVN...WHICH LOOKS MORE CONSISTENT AND BETTER INITIALIZED THE PAST
FEW RUNS...KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CLOSED AND DRIFTS IT OFF TO THE
N-NE...BEFORE ABSORBING IT INTO A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE SE U.S.
BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...IT DEVELOPS THE INVERTED TROF INTO A
CLOSED LOW BY THIS EVENING AND BRINGS IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE LA
COAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP THE CWA RIGHT IN
THE HEART OF A DEEP N-S MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE GULF...WITH VERY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
ETA...ON THE OTHER HAND...JUST MEANDERS THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE SW
AND NEVER DEVELOPS THE SFC LOW. IT ALSO SUSTAINS A MUCH WEAKER
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH SHIFTS OFF QUICKLY TO THE W OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT...MUCH PREFER THE WETTER AVN SOLUTION...AS THE UPPER LOW
ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE TURN TO THE N-NE. EVEN IF THE SFC
LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP FROM THE INVERTED TROF...THE MOISTURE PLUME
FROM THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS
UNSETTLED. FOR TEMPS...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER...SO WILL TREND TOWARDS MAV VALUES...BUT FEEL THEY ARE A BIT
TOO LOW ON HIGHS.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.

MARINE: AGAIN...MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS...
WILL KEEP CLOSER TO AVN SOLUTION...BUT WILL DOWNPLAY THE SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED: WITH THE UPPER TROF PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TLH  072/090 072/087 3535
PFN  073/087 073/086 3646
DHN  074/089 072/085 3535
ABY  072/090 071/087 3535
VLD  073/091 072/088 3535

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

GOULD