Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2002

CURRENTLY: MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT. DURING EARLY AFTERNOON
TALLAHASSEE AREA TEMPS RANGED FROM UPPER 90S TO 105 DEGREES
INCLUDING AIRPORT 97...CROSS CITY 98...WCTC AND CANOPY OAKS SCHOOL
100...FSU 101...THOMASVILLE AND OAK RIDGE SCHOOL 103...AND BROGAN
MUSEUM AND CAIRO GA 105 DEGREES. DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 65 VALDOSTA
GA AREA TO 75 ALONG PANHANDLE COAST. HEAT INDICES SHOT UP TO 105-109
AND UPDATED ZFP TO INCORPORATE HEAT INDICE HEADLINE FOR EACH ZONE.
SATELLITE  SHOWS SOME CU 4-6K FROM SEA BREEZE...AND AC 10K AND
CIRRUS FROM DISTANT WCNTRL GULF LOW AND THIS HAS PUT LID
OF MAX TEMPS. LAST HOURLY OBS SHOW TEMPS BEGINNING TO DROP SO NO
NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION: MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FORECAST AREA
COMPRESSING HEAT AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER STIFLING
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS DEVELOPED ALONG TYPE 2 (ENE) SEA BREEZE BUT SO FAR
SHOW LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. PER VIS SATELLITE...SEA
BREEZE SEEMS BEST DEVELOPED ALONG COAST FROM BAY WNW THRU WALTON
COUNTY AND THIS POSES BEST CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING PRECIP
AS BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH. WITH HIGH TEMPS...CAPES QUITE HIGH. SOME
FORCING ALSO POSSIBLE LATER ALONG INTERIOR ERN BIG BEND BUT COVERAGE
SHUD BE QUITE LOW.

ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS WCNTRAL GULF LOW AND H5 RIDGE TO DRIFT EWD THRU
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER GULF YIELDS TO HIGH PRES
BUILDING ALONG E COAST...EXPECT ANOTHER TYPE 2 SEA BREEZE TOMORROW
WITH LCL GRADS A TAD STRONGER. THIS VERIFIED BY ALL MODEL 1000-700
MB WINDS/850-500 MB RH PLOTS. THIS ADDED WWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH EWD DRIFT OF H5 HIGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE TOMORROW A
LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPS. THIS CONFIRMED BY
MODEL SOUNDING PWATS AND TIME HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. THIS TREND SHUD
CONT INTO WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS LOWERING A FEW DEGREES AND POPS
INCREASING ABOUT 10 PCT EACH DAY.

FORECAST:WILL CONT 3 ZONE ZFP WITH FLA GROUPED TOGETHER. MODEL TEMPS
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL BLEND.

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FUTURE OF ABOVE GULF LOW. SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH MRF/AVN DEVELOPING THE LOW WHILE ETA LOOKS TO
GENERATE A TROF BUT EITHER WAY...ANY DEVELOPEMNT WILL BE SLOW SO
IMPACT ON LOCAL AREA WILL BE GRADUAL. MID-UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT CONUS TROF TO REACH WRN MOST LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. AVN/MRF MOST AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING TROF AND
DRAGGING ASSOCD COLD FRONT WITH US. EITHER WAY...LOW LEVEL LOCAL
FLOW TO VEER BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
INCREASINGLY DEEP LYR MOISTURE AND MAINTAIN MID-HI SCT CONVECTION
ACROSS AREA THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY.

MARINE: NO HEADLINES. AFTERNOON BUOYS CONT WINDS AOB 5 MPH AND SEAS
AOB 2 FEET. SEE LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS SO ONE ZONE FITS ALL
LOOKS GOOD.

FIRE WX: NO HEADLINES. RH VALUES WILL DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS
THE INLAND COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SEA BREEZE CROSS BUT WILL
FALL SHORT OF DURATIONS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TLH  071/095 072/091 0334
PFN  075/089 074/086 0324
DHN  073/095 072/090 0334
ABY  073/095 072/091 0334
VLD  071/097 071/092 0334

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BLOCK