Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
155 PM EDT MON APR 29 2002

CURRENTLY: MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SFC COLD
FRONT AND THE MCS WHICH HAD DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED AND
MOVED E OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH STILL PLENTY OF CIRRUS LEFT BEHIND.
UPSTREAM...THE NEXT VORT CENTER AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPING MCS IS
MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CURRENT 20-30 PERCENT SHOULD
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BUT ARE REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MODELS/ZFP: MAIN FCST PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE
POPS FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SFC FRONT DISSIPATES IN
OUR VICINITY...AND VORT CENTERS RIDE UP OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IN THE NW FLOW. THE NEXT MAJOR VORT CENTER WHICH MAY BECOME AN
MCS AND AFFECT THE CWA LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS IN TIMING...POSITION...AND
INTENSITY. THE ETA IS THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE AND WOULD PUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN THE 12
TO 18 UTC RANGE...WHILE THE AVN IS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER N...AND
WOULD FAVOR A 18 TO 00 UTC TIMING. IN ANY EVENT...THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL CLEARLY BE TO THE N...AND PLAN ON A 40 TO 20 PERCENT POP
DISTRIBUTION FROM N TO S ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO...BOTH THE ETA AND AVN
ARE PROGGING A MUCH WEAKER VORT CENTER TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVENING...SO PLAN ON LEAVING 10 PERCENT IN ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE
1ST PERIOD. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN NUDGE EASTWARD...RETURNING THE REGION TO HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.

MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE W AND SW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

EXTENDED: THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE CWA ON FRIDAY IN A
WEAKENING STATE...BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
ON SATURDAY. THUS...AFTER ONE DAY OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL NEED TO RAISE TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TLH 067/089 067/091 1210
PFN 071/086 071/087 1210
DHN 066/086 069/090 1310
ABY 064/084 067/090 1420
VLD 066/067 068/090 1320

.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

GOULD