Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE FIRING UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE PANHANDLE COASTAL COUNTIES AS EXPECTED. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AND 500MB RUC HAS THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE GA/SC COAST WITH TROUGHING TO THE SW ACROSS OUR
AREA. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTANT THIS RUN WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. A SFC LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OFF THE GA COAST AND TRACK SW ACROSS THE AREA AS
WELL. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN TAKE THE SFC LOW TO THE WEST FRI BEFORE
RECENTERING IT TO THE SOUTHWEST BELOW THE UPPER LOW ON SAT. THE BEST
LIFT AND GREATEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
SFC LOW WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR INTO NRN AL AND NRN GA.
MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS SE AL AND SW GA DROPING THE
1000-500 MEAN RH BELOW 50 PERCENT FRI AFTN THROUGH SAT. 1000-700MB
MEAN FLOW WILL BE NELY FRI AND ELY SAT SO WL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE FL ZONES.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ANY SPECIAL CRITERIA UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN CAUTIONARY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS THE SFC LOW MOVES WEST
OF THE WATERS.

EXTENDED: A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRLA U.S. AND SPREAD OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SFC THE BERMUDA HIGH
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER NORTH FL. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER AND
DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 070 093 072 090 5433
PFN 074 091 073 089 7423
DHN 072 093 071 090 2322
ABY 072 092 071 089 3322
VLD 071 091 070 090 6423

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

MME