Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 PM EDT SAT JUL 27 2002

SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER RIDGE IS PARKED ACROSS THE THE SE CONUS W/ SHORT
WAVES MOVING EWD TO THE N OF IT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N OF
THE BAHAMAS WNW ACROSS N FL INTO SRN MS. LOCAL RADARS SHOW PRETTY
DECENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR EARLY AFTERNOON.

MODEL DISCUSSION/FORECAST: THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NRN THIRD OF THE NATION WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE
S. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SINK SWD AND WILL BE S OF
THE CWFA FROM SUN ON. MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SW TO W
AT 10 KT OR LESS (REGIME 4) THROUGH MON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PW
REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES INTO TUE. WITH SUCH PERSISTENCE ADVERTISED,
SEE NO REASON TO LOWER POPS MUCH FROM WHAT WE/VE BEEN SEEING. NGM
MOS DOES JUST THAT AND WILL BE DISCARDED. FORECAST WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW A BLEND OF MET/MAV POPS AND CURRENT FORECAST. DUE TO THE
LOWER POPS, FWC TEMPS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH. WILL AGAIN BLEND
MET AND MAV, WHICH GIVES US NUMBERS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

MARINE: PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY SW WINDS AT
SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE, W/WINDS BECOMING WLY
AND INCREASING A BIT FOR WED AND THU AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE TN
VALLEY.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.

EXTENDED (WED-SAT): HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA AND GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL
ACROSS NRN GA AND AL THU THROUGH SAT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT,
ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION, WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF
OUR TYPICAL SUMMER WX FORECAST W/ SCT TS DEVELOPING EACH DAY AND
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

TLH  73 91 73 91  3635
PFN  77 89 77 89  2625
DHN  73 90 73 90  3635
ABY  73 92 73 92  3535
VLD  73 93 73 93  3535

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

WOOL