Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

CURRENTLY: EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUD COVER AND OFFSHORE CONVECTION HAS
DELAYED THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT A CU FIELD IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING INLAND WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHOWERS QUICKLY DEVELOPING.
MODIFIED THE 12 UTC TLH SOUNDING THIS MORNING TO T=88, TD=72 TO GET
A PW OF 2.17 INCHES AND A CAPE OF 3312 J/KG...SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PLENTY MOIST AND RIPE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STILL EXPECT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

MODELS/ZFP: STILL VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. DURING THIS TIME...THE MEAN TROF
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
DISTURBED SEA BREEZE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND LOCATED A BIT
FURTHER N...DO EXPECT A REDUCTION IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 90 UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...WITH SOME LIMITED HEATING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.

MARINE: GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE SW FLOW ON THURSDAY...AS A SFC
LOW DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED: IT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE UPPER TROF TO GET SQUEEZED
OUT BY A MERGER OF RIDGING FROM THE EAST AND WEST...WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE SE BY THE WEEKEND. ON THE LATEST MRF RUN...THE
TIMING MAY BE DELAYED A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS RUN...WITH SUNDAY THE
LIKELY BEGINNING OF THE HOTTER CONDITIONS AND LOWER POPS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TLH 072 089 073 090 3636
PFN 076 088 076 089 3636
DHN 073 089 074 090 3636
ABY 072 088 073 090 3636
VLD 071 090 072 091 3636

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

GOULD