Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2002

CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCREASING FROM W TO E AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MOVE W AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE SE 2/3RDS OF CWFA. PRECIP ASSOCD
WITH ESE SEA BREEZE AND WILL CONT TO MOVE W/NW THRU REST OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND QUITE POSSIBLY INTO NIGHTTIME HOURS AS
VORT MAX PROGRESSES ACROSS N FLA. PER RADAR BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
LIKELY. THUS WILL KEEP 1ST PERIOD SCT CONVECTION EVERYWHERE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH REMAINS OVR EXTREME WRN ATLC ALL
MODELS AGREE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT. NGM APPEARS MOST AGRESSIVE
WITH ETA DRIEST. ALL 12Z MODELS RESPOND WITH NOTICEABLY HIGHER POPS
THAN PREV RUNS. ANOTHER DAY OF MOIST SE SURFACE FLOW AND MID-HI SCT
POPS. ON WEDNESDAY...VORT AND MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTL S AND
MODELS RESPOND WITH MODESTLY LOWER POPS WITH GRAD FROM LOWSET POPS
SE ALA TO HIGHEST BID BEND. FORECAST WILL HAVE 5 ZONE ZFO WITH BIG
BEND SPLIT UP...2ND PERIOD 60 PCT SE BIG BEND...50 PCT REST OF
BEND AND PANHANDLE...40 PCT GA/SE ALA ALTHO ERN MOST GA CUD BE
HIER.

EXTENDED:ATLC SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS LOCAL AREA SHIFTS SWD WITH LOCAL
VEERING OF WINDS TO S THEN SW. THIS SHUD MAINTAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO
POPS AND ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS INTO WEEKEND.

MARINE FORECAST: AFTERNOON BUOYS/C-MANS SHOW ESE WINDS...5 TO
10 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 10 KNOTS OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP
PANHANDLE/APALACH BAY DIVISION TO REFLECT SLIGHT VARIATION IN WIND
DIRECTIONS.

FIRE WX: NO HEADLINES.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

TLH 073/090 073/091 244544
PFN 073/089 074/089 243544
DHN 072/091 073/091 243424
ABY 072/091 072/092 244424
VLD 072/092 072/092 244544
CTY 073/090 072/088 243635

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

BLOCK