Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EST TUE MAR 12 2002

SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT UPPER TROUGH
OVER LOWER MS VALLEY W/ H5 CENTER MOVING ESE INTO SW MS. SURFACE LOW
NEAR MSY W/ WARM FRONT ENE INTO CENTRAL SC. WIDESPREAD BAND OF
ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW, AIDED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER SE AL AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND, WHICH IS
ACQUIRING LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN CHARACTERISTICS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN AS THESE
TSTMS MOVE THRU THE PANHANDLE & SE AL. OTHERWISE, WARM & MOIST SLY
FLOW IN WARM SECTOR W/ TEMPS IN THE 70S.

MODELS/FCST: UPPER TROUGH OVER GULF COAST STATES PROGGED TO MOVE EWD
TONIGHT W/ COLD CORE CENTER PASSING OVER FL ZONES. AVN MORE ROBUST
THAN ETA/NGM W/ THIS FEATURE. TROUGH EXITS THE SERN U.S. COAST WED,
REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO
MOVES NEWD INTO LOWER TN VALLEY THU NIGHT, BUT SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT
ON OUR CWFA. SURFACE LOW & FRONT FROM MS INTO GULF MOVES EWD INTO
WRN ZONES THIS EVE & EXITS THE ERN ZONES BY WED AM W/ ASSOCIATED
PCPN ENDING FROM W TO E. MODELS SHOW WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE LIFTING
NEWD AWAY FROM CWFA & CLOUDS DECREASING WED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE GULF WED NIGHT & SHIFTS EWD THU W/ LIGHT SLY
FLOW.

FOR POPS TONIGHT, WILL GO W/ LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL, BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. NIL POPS FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT-TERM PERIOD. A BLEND OF
NGM/AVN MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS PREFERRED.

EXTENDED (SAT-TUE): PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN W/ PACIFIC FRONT
DROPPING INTO CNTRL GA/AL SAT, STALLING SAT NIGHT, THEN LIFTING
N AS WARM FRONT SUN AS POTENT UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS NEWD FROM PLAINS
INTO GREAT LAKES MON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
AL/GA ZONES SUN. COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD THRU THE CWFA MON-MON NIGHT
W/ WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TUE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS. BORDERLINE SCEC CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW
AND WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THRU LOCAL WATERS & WIND SHIFT TO W/NW.
WLY WINDS WED BECOME LIGHT & VARIABLE WED NIGHT. WINDS BECOME SLY
THU & CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TLH 055/075 048/079 8000
PFN 057/070 053/075 7000
DHN 054/073 051/077 7000
ABY 055/072 050/078 8000
VLD 057/075 050/080 8000=

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

MAJ