Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
259 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUED
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.  A DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM FT
STOCKTON TO WEST OF MIDLAND TO NEAR CHILDRESS.

IT WAS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ETA MODEL CAPES
OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. WHILE CIN SHOULD BE NEARLY ZERO...HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE INHIBITED HEATING AND CAP LOOKS TO HOLD. IN
ADDITION...STORMS THAT INITIATED OFF OF DRYLINE TO WEST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY PRESENT...WILL KEEP A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS THIS EVENING. IF THERE IS DEVELOPMENT IT COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE.

SITUATION NEARLY THE SAME ON FRIDAY...LOOKING AT MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO MOVE
FURTHER EASTWARD...PROBABLY FROM SAN ANGELO TO ABILENE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. COOL FRONT PUSHES OVER THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAY GIVE THE BEST (BUT STILL SMALL) CHANCE
OF STORMS.

PRELIM CCF...

ABI 068/088/068/086/057 11122
SJT 068/089/068/089/059 11122
JCT 067/087/067/089/063 ---22

.SJT...NONE.

24

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-182230-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
202 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...

A WARM AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT
HAS ACTED AS A CAP AND HAS PREVENTED THUNDERSTORM FORMATION SO FAR
TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM...THIS CAP WILL WEAKEN AND
MAY EVENTUALLY BREAK. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER 4 PM...WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE MAY AID IN BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP FIRST. THE
STORMS WILL THEN TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE BIG COUNTRY BY EARLY
EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
FARTHER SOUTH DOWN THE DRYLINE SOUTH OF MIDLAND. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT...ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE TO ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.