Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2002

SENT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH A DECREASE ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

.SJT...NONE.

23/HUBER

****  230 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS  ****

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...CLOUD CANOPY CURRENTLY INHIBITING HEATING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS SHOWN BY THE LAPS STILL SHOWING -200 TO -300 J/KG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL WE CAN GET A LITTLE
MORE HEATING AND A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES TO MOVE OVER SO THAT THE
CAP CAN WEAKEN. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS GENERATED BY CONVECTION
THIS MORNING HAS MOVED ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF SJT. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWING
AND SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND MAY HELP TO FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER
THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE TWO AREAS WHERE BETTER
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXIST. ONE OVER THE BIG COUNTRY IN AN AREA
NEAR THE STRONGEST WAVE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND MOVE IN THIS EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN GET OUT OF
THE AREA TO ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP. IF THIS DOES NOT
OCCUR...THEN A FEW ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH 50 TO
60 KT SPEED MAX COMING INTO THE AREA. OTHER MAIN AREA WILL BE FROM
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OVER TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. THIS WILL BE
FROM ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE
DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE FORECAST WHERE CURRENTLY LAPS
ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE INDICATES CAP IS BEGINNING TO ERODE DUE TO
MORE SOLAR. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION THAT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OR DISSIPATE
BY MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS AREA IS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT WILL PROBABLY LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. DEW POINTS
BEGIN TO RECOVER SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LOW
OVER BAJA WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE DRY LINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE
FORECAST FOR EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THIS COULD OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD AT THIS
POINT.

.EXTENDED...THINGS REALLY DRY OUT FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS
ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY THAT MAY GIVE US A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

ABI 060/087/062/086 4001
SJT 061/089/061/087 3001
JCT 057/088/057/084 3100

.SJT...NONE.

27/BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO, TX
1123 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0706 PM    4 E KATEMCY               TX   TORNADO
04/13/02   MASON                          BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

0818 PM    LOYAL VALLEY              TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/13/02   MASON

0909 PM    2 W BARNHART              TX   .88 INCH HAIL
04/13/02   IRION