Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS San Angelo, TX

October 28, 2002Sterling County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 28, 2002, 4:23 AM CST for Sterling County, Texas. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 28, 2002, 4:23 AM CST (10:23 UTC)
Expired: Oct 28, 2002, 5:15 AM CST
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Sterling County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 466 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -44 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 611 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 198 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KSJT 281023
SVRSJT
TXC431-281115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
421 AM CST MON OCT 28 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  STERLING COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS

* UNTIL 515 AM CST

* AT 421 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF STERLING CITY...MOVING       
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM IS DEVELOPING 10 MILES   
  SOUTHEAST OF STERLING CITY AND IS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STERLING CITY AT 440 AM CST
   BROOME AT 450 AM CST

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED 
WITH THIS STORM. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON 
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

LAT...LON 3169 10118 3157 10108 3159 10088 3170 10087
          3172 10083 3208 10083

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 28, 3:16 AM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 28, 3:16 AM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
316 AM CST MON OCT 28 2002

08Z ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. A
SHORTWAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST CROCKETT COUNTY INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AS IT PUSHES ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY THIS
EVENING. AS IT DOES IT PUSHES A PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THE
850MB FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE EAST HALF BY MIDNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
HOLD OFF PUSHING ALL THE WAY THROUGH TILL TOWARDS MORNING. EXPECT
SEVERAL WAVES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE NORTH...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE
NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS EVENING THE 06Z MESOETA IS INDICATING BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE BEST
LI/S TO THE NORTH...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE...BUMPED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A
WHILE. ALSO BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD...DESPITE A
STRONG FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG FRONT PUSHES ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ETA IS
TRYING TO BRING THE CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE AVN IS HOLDING OFF THE MUCH COLDER AIR FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE ETA HISTORY OF HANDLING COLD SHALLOW AIR
BETTER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CHILLY TEMPERATURES IS IN ORDER WITH PASSAGE OF A POLAR FRONT FRIDAY
MORNING. THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POSSIBLE
OVERRUNNING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER WITH WEAK
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY WITH FUTURE
RUNS...THEREFORE KEPT THE EXTENDED DRY. BUT WITH CLOUD COVER...HAVE
KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT STILL THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON SO FAR.

PRELIM CCF...
ABI 068/051/078/053/058 7200
SJT 073/050/082/054/060 6100
JCT 075/052/081/054/062 6300

.SJT...NONE.

24

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 27, 2:30 PM CST, 13 hours 53 minutes before

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-280030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CST SUN OCT 27 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH WESTERN TEXAS TONIGHT.  AS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES KICK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

15

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 28, 4:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Irion	61 min
Oct 28, 4:49 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Coke	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.