Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS San Angelo, TX
NWS San Angelo, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 18, 2002, 6:52 PM CDT for Fisher County, Texas. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 18, 2002, 6:52 PM CDT (23:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 18, 2002, 7:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 38 min
- Issued by
- NWS San Angelo, TX
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Fisher County, TX
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 191 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 139 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -45 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 630 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 225 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 301 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.3
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 18, 2:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 2:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 29 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 223 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2002 19Z ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...MOVING EAST. A SURFACE DRYLINE STRETCHED FROM ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NEW MEXICO BORDER...SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. ALSO A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. TONIGHT... THE ETA AND AVN INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NEAR LUBBOCK/CHILDRESS AREA BY 12Z. THIS WOULD SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRY AIR...AND ALLOW THE DRYSLOT TO WORK INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SOONER. OTHERWISE...AS THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST AHEAD OF IT. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA...THE 850MB WIND SHIFT IS MUCH SOONER...REACHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO STRIP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. LI/S DROP TO -4 AND A MODERATE THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS IN. ALSO THE COLD AIR ALOFT SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE INSOLATION FOR LATE AFTERNOON BUILDUP OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER WITH BETTER INSOLATION OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...IF A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS...IT COULD CARRY OVER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN CAUSE OF CONCERN. WITH THE WIND SHEAR WOULD NOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE TORNADO. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER DRY AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS TO SEE AT LEAST SOME AFTERNOON SUN. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE BIG COUNTRY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD POP UP WITH THE MOISTURE WRAP AROUND SLIDING IN. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OR LAST LONG...AS THE COOLER MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MIXES WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BY MID EVENING...SHOWERS WILL HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE BIG COUNTRY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT...MIXING WILL HAVE PREVENTED ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TRIGGER OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOISTURE BUILDING BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER. HOWEVER THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK CHANCE...BUT WILL MENTION THE BETTER CHANCE FOR FRIDAY. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. PRELIMINARY CCF... ABI 060/076/048/068 8410 SJT 057/079/049/068 73-0 JCT 062/078/049/070 84-0 .SJT...NONE. 24
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 2:20 PM CDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140- 154-155-168>170-182315- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 220 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2002 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO SATURDAY...OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE BIG COUNTRY...AND OVER EXTREME EASTERN SAN SABA COUNTY. 19
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.