Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

.CURRENT...FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NEAR LUBBOCK TO CHILDRESS
AND IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. RADAR STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE BULK OF THESE ARE
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST.
CLOUDS LIMITING HEATING UP TOWARD ABILENE AND SWEETWATER...HOWEVER
IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY FURTHER SOUTH FROM SAN ANGELO TO
JUNCTION...WHERE SUN HAS BEEN ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO RISEN WELL
INTO THE 60S AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE A
COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR DESCENT RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LETS KEEP OUR FINGERS CROSSED

.SHORT TERM...AVN HAS COME AROUND TOWARD THE ETA TIMING WITH
RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
FILL ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT WILL TAKE JUST ABOUT ALL NIGHT TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...REACHING JUNCTION LATE TONIGHT. SO MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO GET GOING THERE. WILL ALSO MENTION SEVER IN THE
FORECAST...AS I BELIEVE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM UP
PRETTY GOOD ONCE THE FRONT HITS THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED PLENTY OF
SUN AND HIGHER MOISTURE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE EARLY THOUGH AS
HEATING DISSIPATES.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER HOLDS. DID GO AHEAD AND
ADJUST HIGHS TOMORROW DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM GOING FORECAST. THEN WE
SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN UNTIL THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FELL PRETTY
CONFIDENT ON RAIN SO WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS UP FOR TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH ALL OF THE RAIN IN THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS HAD TO HOLD SOME MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION INTO WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT.

.THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARMING TREND TROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY. THEN NEXT FRONT COMES INTO THE AREA ABOUT THE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WILL JUST LOWER TEMPERATURES AND NOT
MENTION ANY PRECIP

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 055/069/052/063 6336
SJT 057/068/053/064 7436
JCT 063/070/057/069 7535

.SJT...NONE.

27/BRAZZELL

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-062300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
212 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH MID EVENING...AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...AND INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AROUND MID
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM STERLING
CITY TO WINTERS TO CROSS PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. DECREASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
CONCHO VALLEY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

14