Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

CURRENT...REMNANTS OF MCS MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. AT
THE SURFACE...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

DAYS 1-3...MODELS SUGGEST MORE RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER MCS
FORMING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. APPEARS MAIN ACTION WILL BE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BIG COUNTRY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY...HAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES. MODELS SUGGEST GOOD SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED BY A
LOW-LEVEL JET...MAY DRAW THE DEVELOPING MCS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
MODELS SUGGEST. FOR NOW...WILL NOT PUSH THE POPS TOO HIGH ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THE MODELS
ARE IS TOO LOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. SOME ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO THE SECOND PERIOD. THUS...WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS MAINLY
FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NGM AND AVN
TEMPERATURE NUMBERS DO NOT AGREE VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW AND MONDAY. THUS...NUMBERS WILL BE A BLEND OF BOTH. SOUTH
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR CWFA. OUR
REMAINING ZONES WILL NOT SEE NORTH WINDS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.

DAYS 4-7...RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK AS GOOD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNING
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THUS...WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 065/083/060/088 6310
SJT 068/088/060/091 4210
JCT 071/090/060/090 3100

.SJT...NONE.

23/HUBER

TXZ049-054-064>066-072-073-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-154-155-
160500-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
808 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE BIG
COUNTRY...NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND THE HEARTLAND TONIGHT...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED
AND MOVEMENT...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY AROUND 11 PM AND THEN CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LOSE SOME OF THEIR PUNCH AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE. IN ADDITION VERY
HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ABILENE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

27/BRAZZELL