Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 081451
FFSSJT
TXC105-413-435-081745-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
950 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CROCKETT... 
SCHLEICHER AND SUTTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ON THE ACTON RANCH IN SOUTHEAST 
CROCKETT COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER AREAS HAVE 
RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AT 945 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SCHLEICHER AND SUTTON 
COUNTIES THROUGH 11 AM. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO END FROM WEST TO EAST 
ACROSS CROCKETT COUNTY. UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS 
SCHLEICHER AND SUTTON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

IN CROCKETT COUNTY...HIGHWAY 163 SOUTH OF OZONA...IS CLOSED BY HIGH 
WATER. IN SUTTON COUNTY...HIGHWAY 189...FARM TO RANCH ROAD 
1691...THE FORT MCKAVETT HIGHWAY...AND COUNTY ROADS 202 AND 406 ARE 
CLOSED. OTHER ROADS IN THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU MAY ALSO BE 
CLOSED OR HAVE WATER ACROSS THEM.

DRIVERS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF 
UNKNOWN DEPTH. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND 
SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
319 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL....

.CURRENT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING WEST OF EL PASO. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM NEAR DEL RIO...TO AUSTIN...EAST TO COLLEGE STATION.
RAIN SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. STORM TOTALS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES HAVE ADDED UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES. ALSO
PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY ARE STARTING TO SEE
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCH STORM TOTALS. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND BIG COUNTRY.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BEING NEAR EL PASO BY NOON TODAY AND EAST OF
LUBBOCK BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOW MOVEMENT
ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A SERIES OF
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. ALSO MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AS INDICATED BY THE 30 KT SOUTHEAST FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE ON THE SJT VAD PROFILE. MODELS INDICATE WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MAX THIS
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE IMPULSES COULD PROVIDE FOR A HEAVIER
PERIOD OF RAIN FROM NEAR SUNRISE TO NOON...MAINLY FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN COUNTIES.
WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND WITH MODELS INDICATING HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

.WEDNESDAY...
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH
THE LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THE
MOISTURE BEST IN THE EAST...THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR FLOODING ALSO
SHIFTS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY...
BY THURSDAY THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. A SLOW WARMING TREND CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE 08/00Z MRF INDICATES THIS FRONT IS A POLAR FRONT
WITH SHALLOW MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. IF THE TIMING REMAINS TRUE
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH...THE MRF IS INDICATING 0C TO -2C 850MB TEMPS FOR HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS COULD INDICATE MONDAY MORNING LOWS DIPPING
WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
CURRENT GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY TREND TOWARDS THE MUCH
COLDER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...LOOKING FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

PRELIM GUIDENCE...
ABI 065/056/072/055 +852
SJT 066/057/074/056 +641
JCT 070/061/075/058 +753

24/HOLGUIN

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-081415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 AM CDT TUE OCT 8 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.TODAY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING
ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TODAY MAY CAUSE FLOODING. EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FLOOD RELATED ACTIVITIES THROUGH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ALTHO A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S EARLY NEXT WEEK.