Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 141013
FFWSJT
TXC411-141415-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
512 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SAN SABA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 512 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 5 MILES WEST OF RICHLAND SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR...  
   HALL AT 515 AM CDT
   RICHLAND SPRINGS AT 540 AM CDT
   ALGERITA AT 625 AM CDT

RADAR INDICATED ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES TO TWO INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN 
NORTHWEST SAN SABA COUNTY.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 3140 9908 3123 9909 3093 9889 3096 9851
          3121 9857

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
308 AM CDT SUN JUL 14 2002

07Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN STATES. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS. A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES
FROM WEST OF AMARILLO...SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS
AND THE BIG COUNTRY...THEN OFF TO THE EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY...PLENTY OF LEFT
OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A KICK FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS. WITH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
COULD DEVELOP AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (WEAK JET)
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE DRY AND MOIST
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR INITIAL
STORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES EARLY ON...BEFORE WORKING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH LATER IN THE
DAY. BY THIS EVENING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE KICKING OFF ALONG
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MORE LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO
INTERSTATE 10. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
MONDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ONLY LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO HELP TRIGGER THEM. HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MUCH BETTER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND PROVIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMES WITHIN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF ANOTHER (ALBEIT WEAK) UPPER LEVEL JET...SIMILAR
TO OR SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN SATURDAY/S CONDITIONS. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER A WITH THE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION...AND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MEANDERING ABOUT...ISOLATED
ACTIVITY CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MOST MODELS AGREE ON AN OVERALL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
FLORIDA THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL
THEY ALSO ALL SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS. IT DOES APPEAR ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE RIDGE BEING SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO STIFLE ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FORECAST. ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN ORDER GIVEN
THE MINIMAL VARIATION IN 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

ABI 091/067/090/071 1123
SJT 092/068/092/072 2224
JCT 091/070/092/072 3234

.SJT...NONE

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