Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS San Angelo, TX

July 6, 2002Tom Green County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 6, 2002, 10:14 PM CDT for Tom Green County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 6, 2002, 10:14 PM CDT (03:14 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 2002, 1:15 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Tom Green County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 173 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -173 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1523 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 130 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 070314
FFWSJT
TXC451-070615-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1014 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  TOM GREEN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1007 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SAN ANGELO.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR...
   SAN ANGELO THROUGH 1130 PM CDT

* RAINFALL TOTALING 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THE CITY 
  OF SAN ANGELO SINCE 930 PM...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BY 
  11 PM. 

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 3152 10064 3124 10041 3143 10024 3166 10026
          3166 10052

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 6, 3:15 PM CDT, 6 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 6, 3:15 PM CDT, 6 hours 59 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2002

CURRENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GETS MY ATTENTION. UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. OVER THE BIG COUNTRY
AND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
SWIRL INDICATES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL ALIVE.

DAYS 1-3...THIS SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IS CLEARLY AN
ANOMALY. MODELS FROM THE 12 Z RUN THIS MORNING DID NOT INITIALIZE
WELL IN TERMS OF THE UPPER VORTICITY. FOR TONIGHT...BELIEVE THE BEST
APPROACH IS TO PLACE MORE WEIGHT ON PERSISTENCE AND MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS...INCLUDING WSR-88D DATA. MAIN CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL WE HAVE HAD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWFA DURING
THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. THUS...WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL THE BIG COUNTRY...THE NORTHEASTERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND THE
NORTHERN HEARTLAND TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN UPPER
VORTICITY...ALONG WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WILL EXTEND
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...WE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE OLD MCV OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND
ITS POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THERE TONIGHT. THUS...WILL GO WITH
AVN MOS GUIDANCE POPS OF 70 PERCENT FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
COUNTIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVN MOS ELSEWHERE. FOR TOMORROW THROUGH
TUESDAY...WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS ALL ZONES AS AVN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.

DAYS 4-7...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST BEYOND.

THANKS TO LBB AND FTW FOR COORDINATION.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 070/088 070/091 070 7432
SJT 070/090 070/093 070 5432
JCT 070/090 070/093 070 4322

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR THESE COUNTIES...
       HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...FISHER...JONES...SHACKELFORD...
       NOLAN...TAYLOR...CALLAHAN...RUNNELS...COLEMAN...
       AND BROWN COUNTIES.

23/HUBER

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 1:28 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Sutton	6 hr
Jul 7, 2:23 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Crockett	4 hr
Jul 7, 6:23 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Kimble	6 hr
Jul 7, 2:48 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Fisher	117 min
Jul 7, 2:57 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Fisher	108 min
Jul 7, 3:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Fisher	102 min
Jul 7, 5:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Fisher	4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.