Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS San Angelo, TX

July 3, 2002Brown County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 3, 2002, 3:28 PM CDT for Brown County, Texas. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 3, 2002, 3:28 PM CDT (20:28 UTC)
Expired
Jul 3, 2002, 7:30 PM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS San Angelo, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Brown County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2002-07-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 828 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2002-07-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 78 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
828 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
505 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
132 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 032028
FFWSJT
TXC049-040030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
328 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BROWN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 326 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY
  RAIN OVER WESTERN BROWN COUNTY FROM BANGS TO CROSS CUT...MOVING 
  EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR...
   LAKE BROWNWOOD AT 340 PM CDT
   BROWNWOOD AT 350 PM CDT
   EARLY AT 355 PM CDT
  
* RAINFALL TOTALING 3 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THE WARNED
  AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH 730
  PM CDT.  WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...ADDITIONAL FLOODING
  WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY ALONG JIM NED CREEK
  AND IN THE LAKE BROWNWOOD AREA.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY.  TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3206 9918 3165 9916 3166 9888 3207 9893
1 follow-up statement
000 
WGUS74 KSJT 032316
FFSSJT
TXC049-040030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2002

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

AT 602 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT ON AVERAGE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER BROWN SINCE 3 PM...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY 730 PM CDT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LULL 
IN THE RAINFALL OVER BROWN COUNTY AT 6 PM...ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS 
WERE DEVELOPING IN SAN SABA COUNTY AND WERE MOVING TO THE NORTH 
AROUND 20 MPH. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO BROWN COUNTY 
AROUND 7 PM. RAINFALL RATES FROM THE SHOWERS IN SAN SABA COUNTY HAVE 
BEEN OVER ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR. 
                                                                     
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK 
HIGHER GROUND.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 3, 2:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 2:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
225 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2002

UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH RAINFALL SPIRALING AROUND THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. RAINFALL REPORTS
THIS MORNING OF 5 TO 7 INCHES CAME IN FROM PARTS OF CALLAHAN
...BROWN...AND COLEMAN COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER TOTALS OF AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

MODELS SIMILAR IN FORECASTING THE SHEAR AXIS TO PRETTY MUCH BISECT
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE TWO
MAIN LOBES TO HELP CONCENTRATE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST NORTH AND
JUST SOUTH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THE MODELS
GETTING THIS PLACEMENT EXACTLY CORRECT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE 18Z RUC
INDICATING JUST ONE UPPER LOW AND LEAVING IT PARKED NEAR SAN ANGELO.
GIVEN ALL OF THE MODELS PERFORMANCE...WILL JUST GO WITH WHAT MAKES
THE MOST SENSE...BEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS WITH
SLIGHTLY LESSER POPS TO THE WEST. GIVEN THAT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE RAINS
THIS MORNING...AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL RUNNING QUITE
HIGH...WILL REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND EXPAND IT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER TO THE WEST.

WILL CONTINUE FAIRLY HIGH POPS INTO THE MORNING...BUT AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES WEST...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. STILL...A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
ALTHOUGH MAIN SUPPORT WILL BE GONE...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED WISE...MRF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND DRAG IT SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE ENOUGH DIFFICULTY FORECASTING THESE CUTOFF LOWS
ACCURATELY OUT TO 48 HOURS...MUCH LESS THE 7TH DAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING POPS FOR NOW AND JUST WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

ABI 068/085/069/088 7523
SJT 069/085/070/088 7523
JCT 070/087/070/089 7523

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MASON...MENARD... MCCULLOCH...
KIMBLE...SAN SABA...BROWN...CALLAHAN...COLEMAN...CONCHO...SCHLEICHER
...SUTTON...TOM GREEN...COKE...AND TAYLOR COUNTIES TONIGHT.

07

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 3, 3:07 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-032345-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
307 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SCATTERED LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THIS WILL CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCED HEAVY
RAIN FROM THIS MORNING.

PEOPLE THROUGHOUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TONIGHT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 2, 11:46 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTSan Saba6 hr
Jul 3, 2:45 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTBrown, Coleman3 hr
Jul 3, 3:14 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTCallahan3 hr
Jul 3, 3:18 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTRunnels3 hr
Jul 3, 5:38 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTColeman3 hr
Jul 3, 8:35 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTColeman3 hr
Jul 3, 8:44 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTBrown4 hr
Jul 3, 9:32 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTCallahan3 hr
Jul 3, 12:36 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSJTBrown3 hr
Jul 3, 3:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTCrockett30 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.