Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
105 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

A FORECAST SLOGAN I PICKED UP IN NEW ORLEANS WAS IF IT RAINS BEFORE
10 IT WILL RAIN AGAIN...NOT THAT W TEXAS WEATHER IS ANYTHING LIKE
NEW ORLEANS...BUT I DID GET LIGHT RAIN DRIVING INTO WORK THIS
MORNING...SO BASED ON THE SLOGAN...IT WILL RAIN AGAIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GREETED MANY A BARBEQUE AND POOL PARTY
THIS MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.  AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
RESPONDS TO IMPULSES SPINNING AROUND THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THINGS DONT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...SO CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN.  NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO SPAWN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT TOWARD
THE BIG COUNTRY.

MOST OF OUR AREA HAS SEEN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...CLEARER CONDITIONS
TO OUR WEST SHOULD ALLOW GOOD HEATING TO FIRE UP STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.
AMPLE SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
VEERING SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/ POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

STORMS ARE STARTING TO GO SEVERE WITH A WATCH TOO...SO THAT WILL PUT
AN END TO THE THIS DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH BUILDING WILL TAKE OUT
MENTION OF RAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMS...

ABI 067/087/065  5452
SJT 068/091/066  4232
JCT 066/090/067  4222

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-272300-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
210 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HAS
ALREADY PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BIG COUNTRY...NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND A
WEAK WARM FRONT HAS FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO IN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY...WHERE BETTER WIND SHEAR WILL PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE
NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION WITH ALL OF THE
RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND THE BIG COUNTRY THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A THREAT AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SPOTTER HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

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