Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
417 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WAS
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE OZARKS
WERE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. AT
850MB...PROFILERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOWED A SOUTHWEST 40 TO 50 KT
JET. MOISTURE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION...AS SURFACE
DEWPOINT VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI.

FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS...AS
IT HAS DONE BETTER THAN THE ETA WITH RESPECT TO THE NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OZARKS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS
MORNING...THEN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI BY EVENING. AS THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE ARKLATEX...CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE RUC AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BY 18Z...AS LI VALUES ARE PROGGED TO
BE -1 TO -3. LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS...THROUGH
SPRINGFIELD...TO OSAGE BEACH.

THE GFS HINTS AT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM BRANSON TO SALEM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE...AS K
INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...THIS REGION IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT GRADIENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE ENHANCED AS WELL...DUE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET. THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL...HOWEVER THE 06Z RUN HAS MOVED AREA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.
QPF VALUES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI RANGE FROM 1.25 TO A LITTLE
OVER 2 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE OVERDONE IF STRONG CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH INTERCEPTS ENOUGH MOISTURE. I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED
ABOUT POSSIBLE FLOODING...DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT
SNOWMELT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS 3
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE JUST OVER 2 INCHES...AND 6 HOUR
VALUES OVER 2.5 INCHES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SYSTEM CLOSELY TO SEE HOW THIS POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEPT POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SYSTEM WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

SAW

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CST MON DEC 30 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
  LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

  DISCUSSION:

  A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
  PLAINS...CONTINUES TO FEED IN COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
  WARM AIR.  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
  THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE.  WITH VERY COLD AND
  DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE POTENTIAL
  FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES EXISTS.

  THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO EXISTS SOUTH
  OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.  NEAR SATURATED SOILS FROM A RECENT SNOW
  STORM...WILL ALLOW WATER TO RUNOFF IN A MORE EXTEMPORANEOUS
  FASHION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF FLOODING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...A FEW POST FRONTAL RAIN
  SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE EARLY
  MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

  AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI MAY RECEIVE A QUICK SHOT
  OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
  LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
  EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING...FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

CRAMER

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF