Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Springfield, MO

December 17, 2002Crawford County, Kansas

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Dec 17, 2002, 10:38 PM CST for Crawford County, Kansas. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 17, 2002, 10:38 PM CST (04:38 UTC)
Expired: Dec 17, 2002, 11:00 PM CST
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Crawford County, KS

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 39 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1087 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 267 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 432 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

677 
WUUS53 KSGF 180438
SVRSGF
KSC037-180500-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1036 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 1100 PM CST

* AT 1034 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE     
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE  
  LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30    
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   ARMA BY 1045 PM CST.

THE TOWNS OF BRAZILTON...RINGO...FARLINGTON AND POLK ARE ALSO IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3757 9506 3741 9506 3740 9478 3767 9462
          3767 9507

$$

CRAMER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Dec 17, 2:20 PM CST, 8 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 2:20 PM CST, 8 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
220 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS: SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AS 25H JET WITH 150+ MPH
WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. CONWAY WIND
PROFILER ALREADY INDICATING 50KTS (SSW DIRECTION) AT 85H EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY TRYING TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AND
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR 90H. CONVECTIVE INHIBITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 100 J/KG AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FIRING IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST BUFKIT INFORMATION HAS DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
WITH 50-65KTS AT 90H TO 70H. GREATEST VEERING OF THE WINDS IN THE
LOWEST KM WOULD BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS CURRENT IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. CAPES RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE
INHIBITIONS STILL NEAR 50 J/KG. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WOULD BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO MOVING INTO THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATER
TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THEN.
AM LEANING TOWARD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH LIKELY
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MESO ANALYST WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING AS HELICITIES RISE
TO NEAR 500 M2/S2.

MODELS DIFFER ON ENDING THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE ETA SLOWS DOWN THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH KEEPS
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION (MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL) THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS MOVES THINGS OUT FASTER WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THICKNESS VALUES FALL BELOW 5400M ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE NEXT 7. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
AS MOST OF THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM ANY ONE SPECIFIC SCENARIO. WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN
ON TUESDAY AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC BRINGS
IN MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THICKNESS
VALUES CONTINUE TO MODIFY THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO EXPECT NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

JLT

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 17, 8:46 PM CST, 1 hour 52 minutes before

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
846 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  LARGE HAIL
  DAMAGING WINDS
  ISOLATED TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO COLUMBUS KANSAS.
  INITIAL THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE
  HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

  DISCUSSION:

  A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WAS RAPIDLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
  PLAINS STATES TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WAS MOVING OUT OF
  THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
  TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
  HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS RACING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
  NEAR 50 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
  AS STRONG WIND SHEAR COMBINES WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
  AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.

  A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE
  MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
  SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO CASSVILLE
  MISSOURI. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
  NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
  MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED SOUTH AND WEST OF SPRINGFIELD
  THROUGH 1 AM. AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVATED
  AFTER 10 PM.

TERRY

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 17, 9:46 PM CST, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
946 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0935 PM    WILLARD                   MO   .88 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   GREENE                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0935 PM    5 E MT VERNON             MO   .75 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   LAWRENCE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

Local storm report, Dec 17, 9:51 PM CST, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
951 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0941 PM    MT VERNON                 MO   70 MPH TSTM GUST
12/17/02   LAWRENCE                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

Local storm report, Dec 17, 10:09 PM CST, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1009 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0958 PM    HALLTOWN                  MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   LAWRENCE                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0958 PM    HALLTOWN                  MO   .5 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   LAWRENCE                       HAIL COVERING ROADS IN
                                          TOWN . REPORTED BY HAM
                                          RADIO OPERATOR.

0958 PM    WILLARD                   MO   .75 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   GREENE                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0958 PM    4 N WILLARD               MO   .75 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   GREENE                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

Local storm report, Dec 17, 10:19 PM CST, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1019 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1018 PM    SPRINGFIELD ARPT          MO   .75 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   GREENE                         AT NWS OFFICE
                                          SPRINGFIELD.

Local storm report, Dec 17, 10:31 PM CST, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1031 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 PM    SPRINGFIELD               MO   .88 INCH HAIL
12/17/02   GREENE                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

Local storm report, Dec 17, 10:38 PM CST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1037 PM    9 W MONETT                MO   TORNADO
12/17/02   BARRY                          TORNADO ON GROUND.
                                          DEBRIS CLOUD SPOTTED.
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 17, 10:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Bourbon	63 min
Dec 18, 12:03 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Bourbon, Crawford	57 min
Dec 18, 12:44 AM CST	Tornado Warning	SGF	Cherokee	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.