Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
MORNING...AND PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM
EMPORIA KANSAS TO SPRINGFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. NOTHING HAD FORMED ON
THAT BOUNDARY...YET.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVED
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND AND READINGS NEAR 80 SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM CHANUTE TO JOPLIN. 18Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD HAS A
MINIMAL CAPPING INVERSION (0.7C).

PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR A DOUBLE BARREL WEATHER EVENT
TONIGHT: SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...NEAR THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODERATE RISK FOR
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PER STORM PREDICTION
CENTER LOOKS REASONABLE...STRONG 850 MB THETA E CONVERGENCE AT 00Z
OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI HELPING TO INITIATE
THE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN KANSAS
AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. SEVERAL OTHER AREAS OF 850 MB
THETA E CONVERGENCE MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES ARE INDICATED
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL
MISSOURI TONIGHT.

WATERS BECOME MUDDIER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. STRONGER AREA OF 850 MB THETA E
CONVERGENCE INDICATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. LOW
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED...SINCE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE TO
OUR NORTH. LINE OF STORMS THEN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG COLD FRONT. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED: ADDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT. 240 HOUR MRF 500 MB HEIGHTS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE
00 HOUR INITIALIZATION. LOOKS LIKE THE HEART OF THE SPRING SEVERE
WEATHER SEASON IS UPON US.

THANKS TO NDFD WFOS FOR IM COORDINATION.

PRELIMINARY ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
FCSTID = 8
SGF   64  79  64  83 /  70  30  30  40
JLN   68  82  66  85 /  70  30  30  40
UNO   64  79  64  82 /  70  30  30  40
VIH   64  78  64  84 /  70  30  30  40
AIZ   64  78  64  84 /  70  30  30  40

.SGF...
MO...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES
MOZ055>058...MOZ066>071...MOZ077>081...MOZ083...MOZ089.

KS...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR ZONES KSZ073...KSZ097.

SUTTON

MOZ055>058-067-070900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 244...IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BENTON...MARIES...MILLER...MORGAN AND ST. CLAIR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

GAEDE