Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Springfield, MO

May 6, 2002McDonald County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 6, 2002, 2:50 AM CDT for McDonald County, Missouri. It was in force for 40 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 6, 2002, 2:50 AM CDT (07:50 UTC)
Expired: May 6, 2002, 3:30 AM CDT
In force: 40 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County McDonald County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 6, 3:00 AM CDT	Thunderstorm Wind 52 E	Longview, MO

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 303 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -148 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1379 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 270 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 060750
SVRSGF
MOC119-060830-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MCDONALD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 330 AM CDT

* AT 244 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF   
NICKELS...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED ALONG THE OKLAHOMA MISSOURI BORDER NEAR TIFF CITY AND MOVING 
EAST AT 45MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
   PINEVILLE BY 255 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF POWELL...LANAGAN...NOEL...AND JANE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH 
OF THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3670 9465 3653 9462 3655 9407 3675 9412

RUNNELS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 6, 2:28 AM CDT, 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 6, 2:28 AM CDT, 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

1ST PERIOD FORECAST CONCERNS...COVERAGE/CHANCE OF PCPN
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPERATURES/PCPN
CHANCES AND SKY COVER.

PROFILER DATA SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WRN MO
WITH VERY STRONG 8H JET FEEDING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO.  RADAR ALSO
SHOWING MAINLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW SEVERE TSRA POSSIBLE...MOVING
INTO SW MO ATTM. THIS JIVES WELL WITH MESO ETA QPF FIELDS.

ANYHOW...PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST..WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW IN THE 60S OVER CWA. MODELS
SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN 5H SW FLOW THRU THE PERIOD..THUS SEE NO
REASON TO REMOVE ANY CHC/LOW POPS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

MOS VALUES ARE JUST ABOUT THE SAME FOR TEMPERATURES AND WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THEM. FOR SKY COVER WILL BROADBRUSH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY THRU
PERIOD.

THUS...LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP OVER NRN MO/IA MONDAY
THRU WEDNESDAY THEN AVN SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU CWA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  7H TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10
TO 11C ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF CWA...ERN
ZONES SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER. BUT ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S...WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TODAY...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES...PCPN SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT BEST AND WILL WIND DOWN BY NOON.  WILL NOT GET FANCY
HOWEVER AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS CWA FOR TODAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST...LOOKING AT NEW MRF...IT LOOKS LIKE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THRU THE PERIOD WITH POPS AROUND 40/50 PERCENT. BUT WILL
KEEP FRIDAY/SATURDAY DRY THEN BRING BACK PCPN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP CURRENT LOW POPS IN.

ISC GRIDS ARE OUT.

.SGF...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

SS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 6, 1:49 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	McDonald, Newton	5 hr
May 6, 2:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	McDonald	21 min
May 6, 3:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Stone	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.