Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
900 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APCHG
SCTD/LINE OF TSRA ACROSS TN/KY. EXPECT AS AREAS OF CONVECTION MOVE
OUT OF DEEPER THETA SUPPORT ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
INTO MORE STAB/CAP...WILL SEE INTENSITY WEAKEN LATER. HOWEVER GIVEN
STRONG WINDS/SHEAR ALOFT OFF RNK RAOB...APPEARS STILL CONCERN WITH
WIND POTENTIAL ESPCLY WRN SLOPES(WHERE SPC MODERATE RISK EXISTS) AS
LINE MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTRW WEAK RIBBON OF MCON/INSTAB EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LIKELY TO PROMPT SOME ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCTD SHRA
BEFORE MAIN ACTION ARRIVES THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUS GIVEN GOING
HIGH POPS...PLAN TO UPDATE TO ADD DAMAGING WINDS TO WEST AND ADJUST
WORDING A BIT. MAY ALSO BUMP UP WINDS AND TEMPS A NOTCH ESPCLY OUT
EAST WHERE WAA AND MIXING WONT ALLOW MUCH FALL TIL SHOWERS ARRIVE
TOWARD MORNING.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JH

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-101915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. PLEASE SEE OUR
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...WBCSPSRNK...FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMS

VAZ007-009-110500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1111 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL
MOVE INTO THE RICHLANDS...AND SALTVILLE AREA BY 1140 PM. THESE
STORMS WILL REACH TAZEWELL AND MARION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM. KEEP TUNED TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY UPDATES...OR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

WHP

VAZ032>035-045>047-110630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1236 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.  THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WITHIN AN HOUR.
THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY BY 1:00
AM...SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD  AND SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY BY 1:30
AM...THEN INTO AMHERST...APPOMATTOX AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTY BY 2:00
AM.  HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL PRODUCE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

VAZ013-014-018>020-110800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
201 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO
PULASKI...MONTGOMERY...ALLEGHANY AND BATH COUNTIES BETWEEN 2:15 AM
AND 3:00 AM.  THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIND GUST UP TO 45 MPH.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF OF AN INCH IN AN HOUR
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STONEFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
253 AM EST MON NOV 11 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0145 AM    MONETA                    VA   0.75 IN HAIL
11/11/02   BEDFORD