Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
201 PM EDT SAT AUG 3 2002

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS THE FA...BUT CLOSER TO LINING UP
WITH AVN THAN ETA.  CURRENTLY RUNNING WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS EVENING
CWA WIDE AND WILL LEAVE THIS WITH PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE.  BY MIDNIGHT GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

SUNDAY H5 TEMPS WARMING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH SUBSIDENCE
OVERHEAD.  AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT VERY WARM AND DRY.

MONDAY THE ETA BRINGS A TONGUE OF +20 TO +22 H8 AIR INTO THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL
DAYS.  MAXES IN THE EAST EASILY INTO THE 90S WITH SOME 95+
POSSIBLE.  ETA QUICKER THIS RUN THAN PREVIOUS AND QUICKER THAN AVN
WITH BRINGING NEXT FRONT SOUTHWARD.  VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH AND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
FINALLY WORK INTO THE FA...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH SLOWER AVN AS ETA
HAS BEEN TO STRONG AND QUICK WITH FRONTS OF LATE.

TSRA ARRIVE TUESDAY...THEN PUSH SOUTH OF FA BY WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 08
ROA   69  91  71  93 /  30   0   0   0
LYH   67  90  69  93 /  30   0   0   0
DAN   69  91  70  94 /  30   0   0   0
BLF   67  85  67  85 /  30   0   0  10
LWB   62  85  63  84 /  30   0   0  10
BCB   64  88  65  89 /  30   0   0  10
TNB   62  84  65  86 /  30   0   0  10

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NOGUEIRA

VAZ024-031900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 3 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY...

AT 150 PM RADAR SHOWED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY BETWEEN INTERSTATE 81 AND THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY...
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE TOWN OF VESUVIUS. THIS STORM IS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST...AND WILL BRING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH...AND PEA SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS THREATENED
THROUGH 3:00 PM INCLUDE FAIRFIELD AND CORNWALL.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS OR SEE THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACH...TAKE SAFE INDOOR SHELTER UNTIL THEY PASS. MOTORISTS IN
THE AREA SHOULD WATCH FOR WATER COVERED ROADS.

JJ

VAZ011-018>020-WVZ042>045-032200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 3 2002

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION...

AT 410 PM SCATTERED...SLOW MOVING...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
OF VIRGINIA.  THESE STORMS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO LEVELS WHERE
THEY ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE DIME SIZE OR LARGER HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS. THE VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE BRINGING AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR TO A FEW LOCATIONS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS OR SEE THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACH...TAKE SAFE INDOOR SHELTER UNTIL THEY PASS. MOTORISTS IN
THE AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WATER COVERED ROADS IN THE HEAVIER
STORMS. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET
FOR UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JJ