Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
1050 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2002

HAVE A SENSE THAT SINCE THE MTNS SAW ALMOST ALL THE ACTION
YDAY...THE EAST WILL SEE MORE TODAY.

MESOETA WANTS TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ON SFC TROF OFF THE NJ COAST
THIS MORNING AND PUSH IT WEST INTO THE FA LATE TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT
WANTED TO GET IT STARTED TOO EARLY...WHICH HURTS ITS CREDIBILITY.
HOWEVER WV DOES SHOW A S/WV PUSHING INTO THE JERSEY COAST WITH A
WEAK BNDRY SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE OFF THE DELMARVA.  MODIFIED CAPES
ACROSS NE VA THIS AFTN COULD BE AS HIGH AS 4500-5000...WHERE ATMOS
DID NOT GET WORKED OVER AT ALL YDAY.  SO IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO
OUR NE...STEERING FLOW WOULD LIKELY TRACK IT IN THIS DIRECTION.  SO
WILL BUMP EASTERN POPS UP A NOTCH.

WILL ALSO RAISE TEMPS A LTL.  WILL UPDATE SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE HEAT
IN THE EAST.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
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A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY EXPECTED FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD.

UPPER RIDGE DISPLACED A BIT TO THE NORTH...WITH WEAK IMPULSES
FORECAST TO ROTATE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN EAST SIDE.  STRONGEST VORT MAX
SEEN ON WV IMAGERY SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST.  THIS
FEATURE LIKELY TO INFLUENCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE.  BUFR CAPES RANGING 2K-3K J/KG...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  SPC HAS MUCH OF THE FA OUTLOOKED AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AFTER ISSUING 30+ WARNINGS TUESDAY.

TONIGHT ATMOS STABILIZES AFTER LOSS OF HEATING...WITH TSTMS
DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE 4TH...SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO SET UP A BIT
FARTHER TO THE EAST...AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE LESS
ORGANIZED...BUT WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS ALL LOCATIONS.

AVN CONTINUES TO BRING FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FA ON FRIDAY.
CANADIAN UPPER LOW MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT 1028 HIGH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO AT LEAST FORCE THE FRONT INTO THE FA.  CURRENT
FORECAST IS DRY...BUT AFTER SOME DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
I WILL ADD 30 POPS TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

TEMPWISE HAVE GONE CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS AS AVN MOS CONTINUES TO RUN
ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MAXES.

FCSTID = 08
ROA   92  70  93  70 /  20  20  20  20
LYH   94  69  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
DAN   95  73  94  72 /  20  20  20  20
BLF   83  67  82  67 /  40  20  30  20
LWB   82  61  81  62 /  30  20  30  20
BCB   87  66  87  66 /  40  30  40  30
TNB   86  65  85  65 /  40  30  40  30

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NOGUEIRA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1145 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

256 PM     SINKS GROVE               WV   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   MONROE

330 PM     KELLYSVILLE               WV   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   MERCER

430 PM                               NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/02   ALLEGHANY                      TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS
                                          THE COUNTY.

435 PM                               NC   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   ALLEGHANY

445 PM     CEDAR CREEK               VA   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   BATH

500 PM     8W BYLLESBY               VA   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/02   CARROLL                        TREES DOWN ON STATE RT.
                                          94.

515 PM     MCGRADY                   NC   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   WILKES

715 PM     HORSE PASTURE             VA   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   HENRY                          HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

730 PM     DEEP GAP                  NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/02   WATAUGA                        TREES DOWN ON RT. 421.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1150 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

525 PM     ELLISTON                  VA   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   MONTGOMERY

545 PM     SHAWSVILLE                VA   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   MONTGOMERY

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-032300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 AM EDT WED JUL 3 2002

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST.  VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.  FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY
IN THE HEAVIER RAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS
OCCURRED DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SKYWARN MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON.

NOGUEIRA/JDS