Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

ATMOS HAS DEEPER MOISTR TODAY AND IS A LTL MORE SPPRTIVE OF
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH ARE BECOMING SEVERE.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN
LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS AND SEE NO REASON WHY
IT SHUDNT THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS AS WELL.  ACTIVITY SHUD ALSO CONT TO BE
FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE EAST OF
THE MTNS THRU THURSDAY.

12Z AVN RUN IS VERY DEEP WITH THE TROF OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK...MUCH LIKE THE OLDER MRF RUNS.  MOST BELIEVE THIS TO BE
OVERDONE...SO WILL HOLD TEMPS UP.  STILL WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION FRI AND KEEP IT DRY THRU MONDAY.

MRF AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATING RETROGRADING THE STRONG UPR RIDGE TO
THE WEST NEXT WEEK AND DEEPENING AN EAST COAST TROF.  WILL
RELUCTANTLY ADD POPS FOR TUE AS MRF PROGGING AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT FOR
THAT TIME.

FCSTID = 9
ROA   71  93  71  93 /  30  30  30  40
LYH   70  93  70  92 /  30  30  30  40
DAN   73  95  73  94 /  30  30  30  40
BLF   66  85  66  84 /  40  40  30  40
LWB   65  84  65  83 /  40  40  30  40
BCB   66  86  66  85 /  30  40  30  40
TNB   64  85  64  84 /  40  40  30  40

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-0212200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

...HEAT INDEX AROUND 100 OR HIGHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON...

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S IN MOST AREAS BY
4 PM...AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE UPPER 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...WILL PRODUCE A HEAT
INDEX OF 99 TO 104 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.  THE HIGHEST
HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 2 PM AND
5 PM.

SUNSTROKE...HEAT CRAMPS...AND HEAT EXHAUSTION ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH
PROLONGED EXPOSURE AND PROLONGED ACTIVITY WHEN THE HEAT INDEX
REACHES THIS LEVEL. IF POSSIBLE...AVOID OVER EXERTION IN THE BRIGHT
SUNSHINE DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE AFTERNOON.  DRINK PLENTY OF
NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES TO KEEP YOURSELF HYDRATED.

JJ

VAZ009-015-021745-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF
SMYTH AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
SMYTH AND WESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES VIRGINIA THROUGH 145 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR SUGAR GROVE...IN SMYTH COUNTY...AND TROUTDALE IN GRAYSON
COUNTY. OTHER STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUERIDGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

JW

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-WVZ042-021830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
111 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF VIRGINIA...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
HEADING INTO MID AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY
RAIN OF UP TO 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED
THROUGH 230 PM WILL INCLUDE BLUEFIELD...TAZEWELL...RICHLANDS...
MARION...THE MOUNT ROGERS AREA...AND THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS OF ASHE
AND WATAUGA COUNTIES.

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

610 PM     FAIRVIEW AREA             VA   0.88 INCH HAIL
07/01/02   WYTHE                          HAIL DAMAGED A VEHICLE
                                          AND COVERED THE GROUND.

210 PM     LEWISBURG                 WV   0.88 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   GREENBRIER                     REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
247 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

228 PM     1N LEWISBURG              WV   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   GREENBRIER                     REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER.

230 PM     FARLEY                    WV   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/02   SUMMERS

VAZ007-009>011-018-019-WVZ042>045-022100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...AND THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES...IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING UP TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND LARGE AREAS ARE RECEIVING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT MOST OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...
SUMMERS...MONROE AND MERCER COUNTIES...HAVE GOTTEN AROUND 2 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES OF ALLEGHANY...CRAIG...GILES...AND
TAZEWELL BY 400 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH 400 PM. THIS WILL AT LEAST CAUSE
SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...AND MAY BRING CREEKS OUT OF
THEIR BANKS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE AREA OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SAFE INDOOR SHELTER
UNTIL THEY PASS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WATER COVERED
ROADS. THOSE LIVING ALONG CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS SHOULD BE PREPARED
TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING IS ISSUED.

JJ