Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 6 2002

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE/SPEED MAX HEADING INTO WR KY ATTM. LINEAR
MOTION WOULD BRING THIS FEATURE OVER THE FA AT MAX HTG...ARND 22Z.
MODELS DO HAVE IT LIFTING A LITTLE NEWD THIS AFT AND CROSSING JUST
NW OF THE FA. IN ANY EVENT...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO BREAK
THE CAP WHICH HELD MOST OF THE FA DRY YESTERDAY.  MEANWHILE...EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AREA IS BAKING UNDER SUNNY/M SUNNY SKIES AND CAPES
SHOULD EASILY REACH 2500-3000 J/KG THIS AFT. LATEST SPC MOVED THE
SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST...AND IT NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE FA.
WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT BETTER THAN LAST FEW
DAYS...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SW 10 KTS INCREASING TO 35 OR 40 KTS
ARND 650 MBS THIS AFT. COULD BE SOME BACKING OF THE SFC WINDS NEAR
THE LEE TROF WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME LL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE
PIEDMONT. I EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO
WRN SECTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFT/THIS EVE.

THERE CONTS TO BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS
ACROSS THE REGION.  MORN SOUNDINGS SHOWED 1.5 INCHES...BUT MODELS
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES THIS AFT AND BNA SOUNDING WAS 1.8 INCHES.
ANY AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING WOULD HAVE HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL FOR
WATER PROBS. ATTM I DON/T THINK THIS WOULD BE WIDESPRWAD ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH.

CHNAGES TO THE FORECAST...WILL PROB RAISE MAX TEMPS IN THE MTNS AS I
EXPECT SOME SUN BEFORE THE TSRA MOVE IN. I WILL EITHER RAISE POPS
THIS AFT IN THE PIEDMONT TO LIKELY...OR WILL RAISE THEM FOR THE
EVENING PERIOD. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JJ

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-062230-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING....SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF WILKESBORO AND MT AIRY IN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND STUART...ROANOKE AND LEXINGTON IN SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...VERY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES AS
INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

JJ