Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
330 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2002

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330 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2002

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)

AFTN TSRA DEVELOPED AROUND MIDDAY IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WITH STORM MOTION AROUND 20
KTS...WHICH IS MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES STILL BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...SO STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
DROPPING HEAVY RAINS.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MCS WILL DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO SW TROF OVER MIDWEST THIS EVENING AND PUSH INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WITH MANY
COUNTIES HAVING RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOW FFG VALUES...HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH TIL SAT MORNING FOR NRN AND CTL MTNS
AND PART OF NRN LOWLANDS.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS ENTIRE
CWA.  TEMPS TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TOO MUCH AS ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND NOT
STRAYING MUCH...GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR POPS.

EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS AROUND SAT FROM LEFTOVER CONVECTION AND
ANOTHER VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER NRN CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
HIGH CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST.  GOING BELOW GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO MAV
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP.  DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
EAST OF AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN.
KEEPING THINGS DRY SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND STRONG HEATING SUNDAY...ISOLATED TSRA NOT
OUT OF QUESTION.  FOR NOW GOING WITH SILENT 20 POP.  HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY WILL PUSH TO AROUND 90 OR EVEN LOW 90S ALONG HTS-CRW CORRIDOR.

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

NO BIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED.  FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK DRY AT THIS TIME.  TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH EXTENDED.

.RLX...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 400 PM EDT FRIDAY UNTIL 800 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONES WVZ028>032...WVZ035>040...WVZ046>047.

VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/ HC/ELW
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1010 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2002

UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL HIGH WITH AREA 850MB
DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 13C-16C.  88D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS
NORTHEAST CWA WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF CRW AND
IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.  06Z MODELS DEPICTING WELL THE VORT MOVING
THROUGH CWA ATTM CAUSING PRECIP.  ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING
AFTN HOURS AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG AND LIS AROUND -4.
MODELS HANDLE WELL THE NEXT VORT...RESPONSIBLE FOR MCS OVER
ILLINOIS...AND BRING IT INTO CWA LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG.

FORECAST TEMPS LOOK TO ON TRACK ACCORDING TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
SHOULD EXCEED CONVECTIVE TEMPS. POPS AND TEMPS LOOK
OKAY...THEREFORE...NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING OTHER THAN TO
REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING.

HC
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315 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2002

SHIFTED POP TREND IN SHORT TERM FROM DECREASING TREND NEXT 3 PERIODS
TO INCREASING TREND.  FEEL TNGT AND SATURDAY BETTER COVERAGE
THAN THIS FRIDAY AFTN.  PCPN MAY SHIFT TO MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DURING SATURDAY AFTN.

UPPER AIR SUPPORT AXIS PASSING CRW ARND 12Z THIS MRNG.  SO FIGURING
THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY TO THE N-E OF CRW.
MAINLY AFTN CNV FIGURED FOR AREAS TO THE W-S OF CRW TODAY.  THEN
POPS ALL NIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES - AS LO LVL INFLOW UP THE OH
VLY IMPROVES.

UPPER FLOW TURNS FROM SW TO WNW SO CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD SHIFT
TO ABOUT 290 DEGS OR SO BY LATE TDY OR THIS EVENING.  MOVEMENT
WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS - WHICH IS FASTER THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

STILL CONCERNED ABOUT TRAINING OF STORMS.  WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS-
850 DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 14 TO 16 DEG RANGE.   SO SOME 6 HOUR
HOUR FLOOD WATCHES FOR A GROUP OF COUNTIES MAY BE NEEDED...IF
TRAINING STARTS TO SET UP OVER PREVIOUS WET AREAS.
WILL INTRODUCE THIS HAZARD IN WEATHER STORY.

WITH MORE CLDS FIGURED FOR SAT...DROPPED MAX TEMPS BLW PREVIOUS
FCST AND GUIDANCE BUT RAISED TDYS MAX A BIT..SPLY IN SW.

LEFT SAT NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BATTY
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950 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2002

AS PRECIP HAS ENDED AND SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST IS SHOWING NO
SIGNS OF DEVELOPING PRECIP SOUTH OF IT LATITUDE...CURRENT THINKING
IS THE REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET.  WILL GO SILENT
20 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  HAVE ALSO LESSENED
CLOUDS SOME AS SKIES MOST OF THE LOW AND MID CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED.

TEMP FORECAST STILL LOOKS TO BE OKAY.  WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS
UNCHANGED.

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320 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2002

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT)

NCEP RUNNING IN BACKUP MODE TODAY WITH MM5 REPLACING ETA AND NOGAPS
IN PLACE OF AVN.  LITTLE GUIDANCE TO GO ON TODAY AND AVN (NOGAPS)
JUST COMING IN.  NOT MAKING MANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS
PERSISTENCE LOOKS TO BE BEST WAY TO GO WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.

SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ATTM ACROSS NRN NC INTO SRN
KY.  AFTN TSRA DEVELOPED ALONG MTNS AND EASTERN LOWLANDS...WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND HEAVY PRECIP.  UPSTREAM VORT MAX TO SLIDE EAST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN PART OF AREA.  BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
OH/PA BUT WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CHANCE POPS LOOK
REASONABLE.  WILL GO WITH 40 POP ALONG MTNS WITH MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIP EARLY THIS EVENING.

VORT TO EXIT REGION EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
PUSHES NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY...LIS OF -3 TO -5...AND PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIP IN FORECAST.  FLOW WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH THOUGH THAT SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE.  SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS
ANOTHER UPPER VORT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE
FRIDAY.  THIS VORT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRI NGT/SAT MRNG AND KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH SAT.  UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN SAT
AND MID LEVELS WARM AND SHOULD CAP ATMOSPHERE AND END CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SAT NIGHT.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHILE HIGHS REMAIN IN MID TO UPPER 80S FRI AND SAT.

EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

ONLY MINOR MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.  PUT CHANCE POPS FOR TUE
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.  CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WED
WITH FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA.  ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES.

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KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-WVZ025-026-031-262130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
427 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2002

...STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION.  THESE STORM MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.  THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO LOWER AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.   THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE
QUICKLY AND WATER MAY BE A PROBLEM IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AREAS.

TRAVELERS SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.