Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WUUS52 KRAH 201943 CCA
SVRRAH
NCC163-202015-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING...CORRECTED PORTION OF COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOBBTON...OR ABOUT 11
  MILES NORTH OF CLINTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEWTON GROVE
  HOBBTON
  CLINTON

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS 
STORM. THESE WINDS BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND CAN DAMAGE 
MOBILE HOMES AND BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL 
THE STORM HAS PASSED.

$$

LAT...LON 3527 7831 3521 7851 3497 7844 3504 7818

11

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EDT TUE AUG 20 2002

TONIGHT: CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY CAPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. PLAN TO INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE POPS HERE THROUGH
EVENING. OTHERWISE... DRIER AIR WORKING IN AND LIGHT N WINDS
BECOMING NE SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. FORECASTED
LOWS OF 68-73 REASONABLE & AGREE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. -GIH

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
CENTRAL NC DURING WEDNESDAY.  AVN IS DRY AND STABLE...NGM MAINTAINS
A THICK SATURATED LAYER AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AND UNSTABLE
IN THE LOWER LAYERS...ETA MAINTAINS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO NEARLY 650 MB.  ALL SHOW SUBSIDENCE DRYING ALOFT...WITH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OR STABLE LAYER IN MID LEVELS...AND AN EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  THIS WOULD IMPLY A LAYER OF STRATO CU
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...SPREADING AND FLATTENING TO BROKEN OR
OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST COVER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR A
SHOWER.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 THEN COOL TO AROUND 70 OR UPPER 60S AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST.  GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS BUILD IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...UP TO 5940M AT 500 MB
FRIDAY...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE AND STATIC
STABILITY ALOFT.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS JUST TO OUR NORTH
FRIDAY AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP SATURDAY...WITH SOME
PROSPECT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  THOUGH AN ISOLATED LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT...DRY AND SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER
SHOULD PREDOMINATE AND NO THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE MENTIONED.  DAILY
MAX READINGS OF LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL BE
FORECAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING CLOSE TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  BOTH GFE
AND ECMWF DEPICT A WAVE OR INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY FAVORING AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC.  THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR SUNDAY AND
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DAILY MAX READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S ARE FAVORED. -RFG

.RAH...NONE.

GIH/RFG