Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
245 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2002

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY...

CHALLENGES WITH TODAYS FORECAST FOCUS ON THE PASSAGE OF TWO SURGES
DOWN THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

FIRST SURGE IS WEAK AND PUSHED THROUGH PUEBLO AROUND 08Z. THIS ONE
PROBABLY MORE OUTFLOW FROM NE COLO THUNDERSTORMS AND ALTHOUGH MESOETA
A LITTLE SLOW WITH THE PASSAGE IT HANDLES THE SYSTEM WELL. THE FIRST
SURGE WILL WASH OUT AS THE SUN COMES OUT BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE
DEWPOINTS IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES REBOUND DURING THE DAY AND THINGS
COULD GET INTERESTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE EAST.
LIFTED INDICES DROP QUICKLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AS MAIN BOUNDARY APPROACHES IN THE LATE EVENING. EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. BASES WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH INITIALLY BUT SHOULD LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN ZONES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORMS ROTATING
ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY. WILL MENTION SOME SEVERE IN EASTERN ZONES
FOR LATE AFTN AND EVENING WITH MENTION OF WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT
MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS ON THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE EVENING AFTER
SUNSET.

MEANWHILE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RAISED AS HAINES INDEX REMAINS HIGH
AND GUST POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NOT MUCH RELIEF THROUGH
TODAY AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES. WINDS AHEAD OF TROF WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY AT RIDGE TOPS. RH WILL BE LOW OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TROF/UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING SIMILAR THINGS WITH SOUTHWEST US TROF.
COOLER...AND HOPEFULLY WETTER DAY ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS AT END OF WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HANDLING CHANGES
WELL AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.

.PUB...RED FLAG WARNING FW ZONES 220>225 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

FORTUNE

COZ076-79>081-040600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 PM MDT MON JUN 3 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TORNADO WATCH
OTERO...CROWLEY...KIOWA...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH.