Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Phoenix, AZ

August 18, 2002Pinal County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2002, 9:29 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 61 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2002, 9:29 PM MST (04:29 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2002, 10:30 PM MST
In force
61 min
Issued by
NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Pinal County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 18, 9:55 PM MSTThunderstorm Wind 50 MFlorence, AZMeasured winds of 57 mph at the Magma Dam automatic station.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2002-08-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 50 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2002-08-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 23 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
50 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-196 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3179 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

962 
WUUS55 KPSR 190429
SVRPSR
AZC021-190530-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
927 PM MST SUN AUG 18 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 1030 PM MST

* AT 923 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE...MOVING
  SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT FLORENCE...COOLIDGE...AND CASA GRANDE.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3303 11138 3318 11151 3313 11160 3307 11174
          3306 11181 3279 11156 3290 11140

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 9:13 PM MST, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 9:13 PM MST, 16 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-191045-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
913 PM MST SUN AUG 18 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SHIFT EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...
WHILE FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN IN
A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HENCE...WE CAN LOOK FOR A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER SOME THIS WEEK AS THE WEST COAST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER.

.DISCUSSION...
MORE CONVECTION ON HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HAS LED TO MORE MAKING ITS WAY TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
EVENING ON NELY STEERING FLOW. TSTMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF AZ ZONE 24 TOWARDS THE PHX METRO AREA HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOGETHER
...WITH OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE S SEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE STORMS
NEAR APACHE JUNCTION. NOWCASTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ABOUT POSSIBLE GUSTY
WIND AND BLOWING DUST DUE TO THESE FEATURES. WILL CLOSELY WATCH FOR
THE INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW COMING UP FROM THE S AND STORMS COMING
IN FROM THE E. OVERALL...WIND REGIME IS NOT ONE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STEERING WIND APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH
TUE...AS FLOW BECOMES SLY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPRAMP IN TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER MARICOPA COUNTY AND POINTS TO E FOR AT LEAST MON AND
TUE AS VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL ADD FORCING TO THE EQUATION AS THEY
ARE PULLED NEWD ACROSS A RATHER TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. ETA AND AVN
BOTH SHOW THE DEVELOPING ERN PAC TROF MOVING INLAND THIS WEEK WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BY MID-WEEK. ETA DRIES THINGS A BIT FASTER THAN
DOES THE AVN. IF MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...WE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
OVER-FORECAST ON THE EXTENT OF STORMS THIS WEEK. WILL LEAVE AS IS
FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBLE DRYING TREND AS
THE TROF MOVES IN.  WILT

.PSR...NONE.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.