Special Marine Warning 92, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
617 PM EDT TUE JUL 9 2002

JUST AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST. PREV DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SCA NJ/DE COASTS.

MPD

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WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW IN WRN NY STATE BUT THE COOLER AIR AND
PROBABLY THE FRONT ARE STILL LOCATED IN ONTARIO CANADA. SHWERS AND
TSTMS HAVE BEEN FIRING INTO CENTRAL PA AND NY STATE AND GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST AND SOUTH WITH TIME. THEY WERE APPROACHING THE POCONOS
AS I WROTE THIS AFD.

IR PIC SHOW CLOUD TOPS COOLING AND WE CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CAPE IS ONLY 1000-1500
AS BLYR IS NOT THAT MOIST...EVEN THOUGH DEWPTS ARE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

AS THE CONVCTN MOVES FARTHER TO THE S/E...SOME TSTMS COULD BECOME
SVR...BUT MOST SHOULD ONLY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. IF
TSTMS BECOME SLOW MOVERS OR TRAIN...THEN VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE PSBL
DUE TO THE PW/S INCR TO >2 INCHES BEFORE FROPA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW...HOWEVER...DUE TO THE TIMING...I WILL
KEEP A CHC INTO WED MRNG FOR THE SRN ZONES.

FWC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS ON
THU (EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE) WITH MOST AREAS HAVING HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 70S.

WITH TEMPS STILL HOT...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT FOR REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN.

MPO   56  75  45  68 /  80   0   0   0
ABE   60  80  50  74 /  80   0   0   0
RDG   60  80  51  74 /  80   0   0   0
PHL   70  86  59  79 /  80  10   0   0
12N   59  78  48  71 /  80   0   0   0
SMQ   66  83  50  75 /  80  10   0   0
TTN   70  86  55  79 /  80  20   0   0
MIV   72  86  51  79 /  80  30   0   0
ACY   72  86  62  80 /  80  50   0   0
ILG   70  86  56  79 /  80  20   0   0
DOV   72  87  58  80 /  80  50   0   0
GED   72  87  58  80 /  80  50   0   0
ESN   72  87  59  80 /  80  50   0   0

RNS