Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

COLD FRONT STRETCHING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOWARD THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA
BY LATE THIS  AFTERNOON. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES WILL BUILD
ACROSS...ANCHOR OVER...AND DOMINATE THE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COMPRESSION OF THE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO RUN AOA
GUIDANCE.

UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WHICH SHOWED LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
POPS...NEW AVN/MRF RUNS BEGIN TO RETROGRADE THE RIDGE WESTWARD LATE
MONDAY ALLOWING NW FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO PUSH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AS A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE CWA AND BRING
A MUCH NEEDED COOL DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

DESPITE THE DOMINANCE OF THE HIGH...MID LVL TEMPS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 8 TO 9 DEGREE C RANGE...IE. NOT QUITE WARM ENOUGH TO
DEFINITIVELY CAP OFF THE EVIRONMENT...BUT THERE ARE NO DISCERNABLE
OR SIGNIFICANT FEATURES THAT WOULD WARRANT ANYTHING GREATER THAN A
10% DIURNAL POP. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE PACKAGE DRY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT AN ISOLATED TSM...PARTICULARLY A LATE
PM OR EARLY EVENING ONE...IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.

MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR EACH DAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH A COOL DOWN RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.PAH...NONE.

PACKETT

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-021700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
853 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

HAZARDS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ENTIRE FOUR-STATE REGION TODAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWENSBORO
KENTUCKY TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. TOTAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE
WITH MOISTURE-LADEN UNSTABLE AIR WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

FREEZING LEVELS AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

FURTHERMORE...HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. DERIVED FROM BOTH AIR TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...THE HEAT INDEX IS A MEASURE OF HOW YOUR BODY ACTUALLY
PERCEIVES THE HEAT. THE HIGHER THE HEAT INDEX...THE LESS EFFICIENT
YOUR BODY IS AT COOLING ITSELF.

DURING SPELLS OF HOT WEATHER...IT IS BEST TO COMPLETE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EITHER IN THE EARLY MORNING OR LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN
THE SUN IS LESS INTENSE. IF YOU MUST WORK OUTDOORS...WEAR LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE...AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER OR OTHER NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS NOT LIKELY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-030000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 2 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

HAZARDS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ENTIRE FOUR-STATE REGION TODAY. TOTAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY BUT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE INTERACTION OF THIS FEATURE
WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

FREEZING LEVELS AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

FURTHERMORE...HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. DERIVED FROM BOTH AIR TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...THE HEAT INDEX IS A MEASURE OF HOW YOUR BODY ACTUALLY
PERCEIVES THE HEAT. THE HIGHER THE HEAT INDEX...THE LESS EFFICIENT
YOUR BODY IS AT COOLING ITSELF.

DURING SPELLS OF HOT WEATHER...IT IS BEST TO COMPLETE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES EITHER IN THE EARLY MORNING OR LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN
THE SUN IS LESS INTENSE. IF YOU MUST WORK OUTDOORS...WEAR LIGHT
COLORED CLOTHING...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE...AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER OR OTHER NON-ALCOHOLIC FLUIDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.