Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW NEAR CHI WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UNO AREA INTO NE TEXAS. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW...ACROSS IN AND OH. DEWPOINTS
WERE WELL INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE FA. VIS SAT PICS SHOW A FEW
CLOUDS OVER AREA HOWEVER...DENSE CLOUDS REMAINED NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AND POST FRONTAL.

SURFACE LOW HAD ROCKETED OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO NE ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. THE 12Z SAT
MESO ETA SHOWS DECENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH LIS TO -4...CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG...SHOWALTERS AROUND ZERO...AND K INDICIES AROUND 30.
IN CONTRAST...THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
TAKING THE BEST CONVERGENCE WITH IT. KPAH VWP INDICATES LITTLE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MODEST SPEED SHEAR. THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE WOULD NOT LIKELY BE TORNADIC.
WITH A FRONT IN THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING AND THE FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 12K AND WET BULB ZERO AROUND 10K WOULD NOT RULE OUT HAIL OR
WIND SHOULD ANY STORMS GET GOING OVER FA.

AFTER TODAY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING AGAIN ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH ITS THE
BEST CHANCE ITS STILL NOT A GOOD CHANCE AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
DRY FORECAST UNTIL STRONGER EVIDENCE PRESENTS ITSELF OR MODELS SHOW
A BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF FA IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE RUN
AND WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. WILL
MODERATE LOWS OUT OF THE 50S AND INTO THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT.

.PAH...NONE.
KH

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-252030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
954 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

THREATS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE AREA...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND LOCAL STRONG WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...
AT MID MORNING...LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND DAMPEN OUT TODAY.
HOWEVER...MORNING UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT
EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. WINDS FIELDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN 80
AND 85 DEGREES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...AND ONLY MODEST SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW MEANS
THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...AND LOCAL STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT SPOTTERS SHOULD STAND BY...AND
MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED IN A FEW AREAS IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THEN...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL AS MEMORIAL DAY.

NOLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM                              IL   WIND DAMAGE
05/25/02   JEFFERSON                      LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON
                                          HWY 148...SOUTH OF MT.
                                          VERNON. REPORTED BY
                                          JEFFERSON COUNTY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.