Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

PRIMARY FOCUS REMAINS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
WILL RAISE POPS TO 100 PERCENT AREA-WIDE TONIGHT. AVN CONTINUES TO
HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM MOIST AIR LIFTED OVER THE
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IN PLACE. ONE TO AS
MUCH AS THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL GIVEN THE LACK OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM AT THE ONSET
OF THE ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
AND RELATIVELY WARM FREEZING LEVELS. IF ANYTHING DOES GO SEVERE...
BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

BY MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. CLEARING WILL ENSUE THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL LOOK DRY. LATEST 12Z AVN TRIES TO
BRUSH THE AREA WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
POSITION PROGGED BY THE LATEST MRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE WORDING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS
STORM SYSTEM INFLUENCES THE AREA.

OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES
TO THE OFFICIAL GRIDDED DATABASE. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
FWC/MAV NUMBERS FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED
MAV/MEX GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.

.PAH...FLOOD WATCH (FFA) FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
       ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA FOR TONIGHT
       AND EARLY MONDAY.

PRESLEY

ILZ075>078-080>091-INZ081-085-086-MOZ076-086-087-100-130400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 293 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

PERRY...WAYNE...BOLLINGER...AND CAPE GIRARDEAU.

IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

JEFFERSON...WAYNE...EDWARDS...WABASH...PERRY...FRANKLIN...HAMILTON...
WHITE...JACKSON...WILLIAMSON...SALINE...GALLATIN...UNION...JOHNSON...
POPE...AND HARDIN.

IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

GIBSON...POSEY...AND VANDERBURGH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION IN THE EVENT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

IF YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE ENSURE YOUR REPORTS ARE
RELAYED TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR CALLED DIRECTLY
INTO THE SPOTTER HOTLINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
729 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0704 PM    BREWER                    MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   PERRY                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0709 PM    LITHIUM                   MO   WIND DAMAGE
05/12/02   PERRY                          TREES DOWN
                                          REPORTED BY
                                          PERRY COUNTY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE

0728 PM    2S CAMPBELL HILL          IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

0730 PM    CAMPBELL HILL             IL   WIND DAMAGE
05/12/02   JACKSON                        TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          TRAINED SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0749 PM    1W HURST                  IL   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   WILLIAMSON                     REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

0750 PM    CARBONDALE                IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

0755 PM    3S CARBONDALE             IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/12/02   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS