Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
313 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

MAIN QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ON THE DRYLINE.  THERE HAVE BEEN A ECHOES CYCLING IN THE EASTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... BUT NONE HAVE TAKEN HOLD
YET.  CONVERGENCE IS NOT VERY STRONG WITH NO BACKED WINDS TO THE
EAST... BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.  LATEST RUC AND MESOETA
DO SHOW PRECIP BREAKING OUT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 00Z AND ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY 06Z.  MESOETA ACTUALLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.  SPECIAL 20Z SOUNDING MAY ALSO SHED SOME LIGHT
ON THE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE... SO MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANCE.
BUT WILL KEEP PRELIM 20S IN THE EVENING.

CHANCE FOR PRECIP INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.  WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.  MODELS
SHOW FRONT MAY BE MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATER THAN
FORECAST... SO WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A TOUCH IN THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY.

...SPEG.
OKC   66  82  62  72 /  20  20  50  60
HBR   64  83  60  73 /  20  20  30  50
SPS   68  85  63  79 /  20  20  30  50
GAG   60  88  47  66 /  20  20  30  50
PNC   66  83  58  68 /  20  20  50  60
DUA   67  85  66  78 /  20  20  50  60

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THERE ALSO WILL BE A
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STOMRS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA... IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
DRYLINE.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA... AND THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THAT ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE...
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING.

EXPECTED WEATHER/IMPACTS...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IF STORMS FORM...SOME WILL BECOME
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. HAIL AND WIND OF THIS
MAGNITUDE MAY DUE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES... ROOFS AND
BUILDINGS.  ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG A RETREATING BOUNDARY
IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.
THE HIGHEST RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CHEYENNE TO CHEROKEE.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WAS PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TO
THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...A VERY WARM...HUMID AND POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE.

INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  SOME OF THE LATEST DATA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN TEXAS AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THREAT TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THU APR 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA ... 60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR ... 100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7AM
THURSDAY.

 MILLER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0446 PM    ARNETT                    OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   ELLIS                          SPOTTER REPORT

JLP

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
521 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    FT. SUPPLY                OK   .88 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   WOODWARD                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0510 PM    FT. SUPPLY                OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   WOODWARD                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0515 PM    16 SSE BUFFALO            OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   HARPER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    9 S BUFFALO               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   HARPER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0533 PM    2 W WOODWARD              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   WOODWARD                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
607 PM CDT WED APR 17 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    3 NW LOOKOUT              OK   .75 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   WOODS                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC