Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002

MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. SURFACE ANALYSES
ACKNOWLEDGE A N-S DEWPOINT GRADIENT INDICATING A SURFACE FRONT
VICINITY CENTRAL OK...BUT ANOTHER BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS N TX FROM
BETWEEN LBB-ABI E-WARD TO DFW AREA...THEN NE INTO AR. THIS BOUNDARY
SEPARATES MID-UPPER 60 TEMPS AND S-SE WINDS TO S FROM UPPER
50S-LOWER 60S AND E WINDS TO N. EXPECT MCS OVER PANHANDLES WILL ROLL
ESE ALONG THETA-E GRADIENT AND SET UP THE N TX BOUNDARY AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER N...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL QPFS...SUGGEST
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TODAY THAT WOULD CLOBBER AT LEAST THE N
PARTS OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA WITH EITHER PRECIP/CONVECTION OR
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THEREFROM. 00Z AVN WANTS TO LIFT THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY N INTO CENTRAL OK BY 18Z...BUT WE DO NOT SEE THIS
HAPPENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY ARE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF TX AND
OK...AND WHILE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF...IT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO
DISPLACE THE GUNGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE
DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY AVN ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...WITH LOWER 60S
EXPECTED AT BEST ACROSS AREA BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO
S. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE THINK THE MAX SEVERE RISK WILL BE A BIT
FARTHER S...ACROSS S OK AND N TX...ALTHO THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF
SEVERE AREAWIDE WITH MAIN THREAT ACROSS N BEING HAIL. HEAVY RAIN
ALSO POSSIBLE...WILL INSERT WORDING ACCORDINGLY.

POPS AT 100PCT TODAY ACROSS MOST OF NW OK WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY...
AND WILL PUSH MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA TO AT OR NEAR CATEGORICAL
LEVELS. RATHER STEEP POP GRADIENT ACROSS SW ZONES AS S EDGE OF MCS
ACTIVITY MAY SWEEP THRU THE TX ZONES. POP GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL BE W
TO E AS UPPER TROF TRAVERSES AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOW POPS
EARLY SUN IN SOME OF THE E ZONES...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BEHIND TROF AND END UP WITH A WARM AND PLEASANT DAY AS PATTERN
BEGINS TRANSITION TO A WESTERN-US LONGWAVE TROF. TEMPS WILL BE
MODELED AFTER THE MESOETA GRIDS EXCEPT FOR LOWERING THE DAYTIME
TEMPS TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS/PRECIP.

NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND MON.

COORD W/ICT...TUL...FTW...THANKS.

FCSTID = 24
OKC   70  59  78  60 /  80  60  10   0
HBR   73  57  81  60 /  90  40  10   0
SPS   75  57  82  62 /  70  40  10   0
GAG   68  53  82  58 / 100  20  10   0
PNC   68  55  78  58 /  90  40  10   0
DUA   75  62  78  60 /  70  70  20   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.