Severe Thunderstorm Warning 495, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
410 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

SURFACE MOISTURE WORKING N-WARD FROM TX...ELEVATED MOISTURE ALREADY
ADVECTING OVER AREA...AND CENTRAL-PLAINS FRONTAL ZONE HEADING S ALL
MAKE FOR A FORECAST LOADED WITH UNCERTAINTIES. BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT FROM MN/IA TO KS AND SW-WARD INTO W/SW TX
SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED STORMS COULD GO ALMOST ANYWHERE ANY TIME.
FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE MESOETA...MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY
INITIALLY WOULD BE FROM E KS INTO W MO EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREA OF
BETTER WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. ELEVATED CONVECTION
THEN BUILDS OR FILLS IN SW-WARD THRU CENTRAL/SW OK ALONG/AHEAD OF
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ROOTED MORE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON OVER S ZONES AS FRONT REACHES HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. HIGHEST POPS RAISED TO 60PCT SE...LOWER NW WITH MORNING
WORDING. FORECAST VEERING OF LL WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT IS USUALLY A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE...BUT GIVEN WHAT SOME OF THE STORMS IN KS
HAVE DONE THIS MORNING...MUST REMAIN ALERT FOR MAINLY HAILERS.
CLEARING NW TO SE BEHIND FRONT DURING DAY. HIGHS RAISED MOST AREAS
IN LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE.

AFTER A CLEAR COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW LATE
MON AND ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS
EXTREME N MEXICO. MOISTURE AGAIN WILL BE POISED NOT FAR TO OUR S
AFTER TODAYS FROPA. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS UNTIL TUE AS BL
WILL BE SLOWER TO MOISTEN UP...ALTHO LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BRING
POPS INTO AT LEAST W ZONES MON NIGHT. CLOUDS AND POPS ARE INCREASED
ON TUE...AND HIGH TEMPS ARE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY DUE TO CLOUDS. POPS
ARE EXTENDED INTO EARLY WED AS APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM LOOKS A
BIT STRONGER WITH EACH RUN. THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A STRATIFORM
PRECIP EVENT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS FAR N. NO CHANGES BEYOND
WED EXCEPT TO NUDGE THE TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WED-THU.

FCSTID =   24
OKC   79  45  73  53 /  40   0   0  10
HBR   77  45  74  55 /  30   0   0  10
SPS   82  49  75  57 /  40  10   0  10
GAG   73  39  72  53 /  20   0   0  10
PNC   75  42  71  53 /  20   0   0  10
DUA   82  49  75  55 /  60  10   0  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

.TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO
HOLLIS OKLAHOMA.  THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHANDLER TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO  HOLLIS
OKLAHOMA AT NOON SUNDAY AS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.  THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS COLD FRONT.  THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AND CAN SUPPORT
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ENDING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
BY MID EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MON OCT 7.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER DANGER...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.26.