Severe Thunderstorm Warning 483, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2002

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH SCATTEREED THUNDERSTORMS CONT
ACROSS MUCH OF STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STRONGER STORMS
WILL PROGRESS ON EAST OF AREA WITH SFC FRONT PUSHING INTO SE OK THIS
MORNING...UPPER LOW IS STILL TO OUR WEST WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH REMAINING ACROSS AREA. WILL CONT TO SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY. WILL EVEN KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST AS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES
OFF TOWARD THE NE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FIRST IN THE SW BY
LATE TODAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING.

COOLER WX WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ANOTHER...PERHAPS EVEN
COOLER AIRMASS...MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA DOWN THE ROAD...BUT HAVE
BEEN DIFFERING ON TIMING. THE LATEST RUN AGAIN SHOWS IT MOVING INTO
AND ACROSS STATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT
LATE MON INTO TUE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY TYPE OF WARMING TREND AT BAY
AS WE START TO SEE THE SIGNS OF TRANSITION INTO FALL. AS FAR AS THE
EXTENDED WILL BUMP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY MOST PERIODS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO REST OF EXTENDED.

FCSTID =30
FIRST ITERATION
OKC   72  54  77  56 /  70  20   0   0
HBR   69  51  78  56 /  50  10   0   0
SPS   74  54  81  58 /  50  10   0   0
GAG   63  47  78  52 /  60  20   0   0
PNC   69  51  76  56 /  70  30   0   0
DUA   78  56  80  57 /  80  20   0   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-192300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STRONG WIND SHEAR... INSTABILITY IS LOW BECAUSE OF
THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... SO THE RISK OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO LIMITED.  HOWEVER AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRI SEP 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER DANGER...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SPEG.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
130 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 PM    OKARCHE                   OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
09/18/02   KINGFISHER                     MEASURED BY STORM SPOTTER

FM