Severe Thunderstorm Warning 416, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
927 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

MCS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN KS THIS EVENING.EXPECT
COMPLEX TO CONTINUING PROPAGATING SSEWD INTO INSTAB AXIS WHICH
EXTENDS FROM PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. GOING FCST HAD THIS SCENARIO
PRETTY WELL IN HAND WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE WESTERNMOST ZONES THEN
TAPERING OFF TO THE EAST. WILL JUST MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND TMPS IN THE FIRST PD...OTRW NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

02

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEGINNING OF
COMPLEX THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY WESTERN PARTS OF CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT AS LF OF UPPER JET OVER SW
US MOVES TOWARD HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND LLJ INCREASES
WILL SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH AND THEN INTO NW OKLAHOMA.
BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
FA THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE TRICKY...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SUN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE.

WILL LIKELY SEE SIMILAR SITUATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER AND ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET.
BEST CHANCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF CWA.
HAVE IN ONLY SLIGHT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY BUT MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS LATER AS TUESDAY NIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN UPPER AIR FEATURES AT BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED FORECAST (THURS) WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TX AND
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST NEAR GA/AL.  GOING INTO
FRIDAY...TROUGH/SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN STATES LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF FA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.  CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY AND WILL LIKELY  MAINTAIN
DRY FORECAST AS MOST IF NOT ALL WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN NORTH.  GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER AIR FEATURES.  ECMWF KEEPS
UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN 2/3 OF US WITH WEAK WESTWARD MOVING TROUGH
OVER SW GULF. MRF MAINTAINS WEAKNESS/LOW IN RIDGE AND MOVES IT WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND.  OVERALL...PLAN ON KEEPING EXTENDED FORECAST DRY
WITH WEAKER UPPER FLOW, WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT, AND MAIN CONVECTION
WITH GULF SYSTEM REMAINING ON EASTERN SIDE.  EXTENDED GRIDS OUT
SHORTLY.  LOOKING AT NEW ETA AND AVN WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT IN
SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSRA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FCSTID = SIX

OKC  68 89 69 88 /  30 20 20 20
HBR  67 88 68 88 /  60 40 40 20
SPS  69 93 71 94 /  40 30 40 20
GAG  65 86 65 87 /  60 40 40 20
PNC  67 88 69 88 /  20 20 20 20
DUA  70 94 70 92 /  20 20 20 20

.OKC...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT TUE AUG 27 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1145 PM    1 SW BUFFALO              OK   68 MPH WIND GUST
08/26/02   HARPER                         OKLAHOMA MESONET REPORT.
                                          WIND 35048G59KT.

...SPEG.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE AUG 27 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1150 PM    1 SW BUFFALO              OK   64 MPH WIND GUST
08/26/02   HARPER                         MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET. WIND 36044G55KT.

1207 AM    2 SW GAGE                 OK   72 MPH WIND GUST
08/27/02   ELLIS                          MEASURED AT GAGE AIRPORT
                                          ASOS.  PK WND 34063/0507.

1210 AM    FORT SUPPLY               OK   60 MPH WIND GUST
08/27/02   WOODWARD                       SPOTTER ESTIMATE OF 60 TO
                                          65 MPH WINDS. TWO PICKUP
                                          TRUCK TOPPERS BLOWN OFF.

1215 AM    FORT SUPPLY               OK   WIND DAMAGE
08/27/02   WOODWARD                       ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH
                                          WINDS REPORTED BY COOP
                                          OBSERVER.  TWO LARGE TREE
                                          LIMBS /6 TO 8 INCH/ DOWNED.

1220 AM    WOODWARD                  OK   WIND DAMAGE
08/27/02   WOODWARD                       SPOTTER RELAYED REPORT OF
                                          TWO TREES BLOWN OVER INTO A
                                          HOUSE.

1225 AM    2 WSW WOODWARD            OK   68 MPH WIND GUST
08/27/02   WOODWARD                       MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET. WIND 33038G59KT.

1229 AM    8 W WOODWARD              OK   68 MPH WIND GUST
08/27/02   WOODWARD                       AWOS MEASURED WIND AT WEST
                                          WOODWARD AIRPORT /KWWR/.
                                          WIND 34036G59KT.

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