Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP ALG AND NORTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO CNTRL SECTIONS OF OK THIS EVENING. WILL ADJUST
POPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SHORT TERM TRENDS.
THINK SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT
AS AMS BECOMES MORE STABLE OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESP NRN SECS AS ACTIVITY MOVING FROM ERN CO
INTO WRN KANSAS MAY WORK ITS WAY TOWRD NRN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE SAT WITH S/W MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND SFC BNDRY/S LINGERING IN THE FA.

02

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
104 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNITE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH PUSHED AS FAR
SOUTH AS HBR-PNC..BUT BOUNDARY IS NOW RAPIDLY LOSING DEFINITION AS
INSOLATION WORKS OVER SHALLOW COLD POOL AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
COMMENCE ON THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX MIGRATING INTO WRN CO ATTM. THERE MAY BE A SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE DIFFUSE
RETREATING BOUNDARY ZONE OVER NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..BUT
CHANCES APPEAR SMALL ATTM DUE TO WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MASS CONVERGENCE.  THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
ISOLATED EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE SW ZONES WHERE VERY DEEP MIXING
WILL OCCUR.

MCS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE TO OUR N/NW TONITE AND SLIDE SEWD ALONG/N
OF BAROCLINIC RIBBON.  BOUNDARY OVER NRN OK SHUD BE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SAT/SUN..WITH APPARENT RISK OF AT LEAST SOME SVR DUE
TO QUITE HEALTHY MID LEVEL FLOW BY AUGUST STANDARDS FOR THIS PART OF
THE WORLD AND STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES INVOF
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER..IT MAY BE A LATE SHOW WITH INITIATION AGAIN
OCCURING ON THE HI PLAINS WITH AN MCS MOVING SEWD INTO OK LATE
EVENING OR OVERNITE SAT NITE.

CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHUD TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK..WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS AGAIN MID WEEK WITH NEXT FRONT
IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THUS..THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS LEFT ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED WITH A DRY FORECAST INTRODUCED FOR DAY 7.

OKC   72  94  71  90 /  20  30  40  30
HBR   75  98  72  94 /  10  20  30  30
SPS   76 102  75  98 /  10  10  20  30
GAG   71  95  65  89 /  20  30  30  20
PNC   74  92  67  89 /  30  40  50  20
DUA   75  95  73  93 /  10  20  30  30

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0645 PM    8 N QUINLAN               OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/23/02   WOODWARD                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

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