Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
341 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACRS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK. OUTFLOW/FNT HAD PUSHED SWD
INTO FAR SRN SECS OF THE FA BY AFTN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS
OCCURED ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER THE ERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FA. EXPECT FNT TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD INTO MOIST
UNSTABLE AMS THIS EVENING. EXPECT SUFF LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY AS S/W CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE PLAINS. BY WED UPR
SYS BEGINS TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH SFC BNDRY WEAKENING. WILL
LEAVE LO POPS IN THE SE FOR RESIDUAL ACTIVITY WITH REMAINDER OF THE
FA DRY. WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY AS LO LVL SLY FLOW
RETURNS. LTL CHANGE TO EXTENDED.

FCSTID =02
OKC   63  86  64  92 /  40  10  10  10
HBR   62  87  66  94 /  20  10  10  10
SPS   66  90  68  96 /  50  10  10  10
GAG   55  86  63  94 /  10  10  10  10
PNC   61  86  65  93 /  40  10  10  10
DUA   66  86  68  93 /  80  20  10  10

.OUN...
.OK...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-140000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CHEYENNE TO STILLWATER. IN OKLAHOMA...THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF
WEATHERFORD...OKLAHOMA CITY...LAWTON...ARDMORE...AND DURANT. IN
TEXAS...QUANAH...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...SEYMOUR...AND
HENRIETTA.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS PREVENTED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREAD INTO THE AREA...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. DUE TO ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE RISK AREA...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD YIELD A PRIMARY IMPACT
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WED AUG 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST 2 DAYS.

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OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-140000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT TUE AUG 13 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
CHEYENNE TO STILLWATER. IN OKLAHOMA...THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF
WEATHERFORD...OKLAHOMA CITY...LAWTON...ARDMORE...AND DURANT. IN
TEXAS...QUANAH...VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...MUNDAY...SEYMOUR...AND
HENRIETTA.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION HAS PREVENTED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREAD INTO THE AREA...RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. DUE TO ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR ACROSS THE RISK AREA...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD YIELD A PRIMARY IMPACT
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WED AUG 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...WHERE SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST 2 DAYS.

11