Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2002

APPARENTLY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS FORGOTTEN THAT THIS IS AUGUST.  VERY
ATYPICAL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

FIRST... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OVER
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA BY TOMORROW
MORNING.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MESOETA HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
OVERALL SITUATION... AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS SOLUTION IN THE
VERY NEAR TERM.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SHOWERS/STORMS VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT... BY
FAR THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH... AND MAINLY TOWARD
SUNRISE... AS THE MCS ADVANCES INTO THE AREA.  THE EXISTING STORMS
IN KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SHOULD DIE OUT TOWARD
SUNSET... AND ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE PLANNED MCS.

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS TOMORROW MORNING... THE FORECAST COULD GO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT WAYS.  HAVE OPTED AGAIN TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL PLAN
OF THE MESOETA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.   THE REMAINS OF
THE MCS SHOULD DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE IN THE MORNING...
AND WIDELY-SPACED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE STILL-UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  NATURALLY... ANY REMAINING SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WOULD BE FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AS IS USUAL WITH AN
MCS... THE BOUNDARIES COULD BE PRACTICALLY ANYWHERE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

MORE SPARSE CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY DUE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY AND NO CAP... BUT WITH NO APPARENT BOUNDARIES OR
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT... BELIEVE THAT 20 PERCENT POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A BIT OVERDONE.

THE NEXT FRONT PLOWS INTO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  BY
MID-WEEK... IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL FINALLY BE BACK TO AUGUST
WEATHER AGAIN.  ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE AVN BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK... IT APPEARS THAT IT IS BEING OVERLY
PUSHY WITH IT.  THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF SHOW THE JET STREAM FARTHER
NORTH... WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE FRONT FROM COMING THIS FAR SOUTH.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   70  91  68  92 /  20  30  20  20
HBR   71  91  68  93 /  20  30  20  20
SPS   73  93  69  93 /  10  20  20  20
GAG   66  90  66  93 /  60  40  10  20
PNC   70  90  67  92 /  50  40  10  20
DUA   72  91  71  92 /  20  20  30  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-092200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI AUG 9 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAGE TO CHEROKEE.

TIMING...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 3 AM AND
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SAT AUG 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY MORNING.

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