Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
231 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CRANKED UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER A
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.  THE POSITION AND COVERAGE OF THE STORMS AT ZONE
ISSUANCE TIME WILL DICTATE TO A GREAT DEGREE THE FINAL ARRANGEMENT
OF POPS FOR TONIGHT.  AT THIS TIME... THE PLAN IS TO HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING IN THE GENERAL REGION OF THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE... WITH DECREASING POPS FARTHER AWAY FROM IT.  BY THE TIME THE
ZONES TAKE EFFECT... COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT OR LESS.  HOWEVER... WE WILL RESERVE THE RIGHT TO MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE POPS SHOWN BELOW.

ONCE THIS CONVECTION IS OVER... THINGS LOOK RATHER DRY.  THE UPPER
RIDGE TAKES STRONGER EFFECT FROM TOMORROW ONWARD AND SHOULD RESULT
IN VERY LOW OR NIL POPS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  THE MAV GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE... ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL.  FOR
NOW... WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BY A HAIR OR TWO... WHICH PUTS THEM
GENERALLY EVEN WITH MAV.

THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.  MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH
WILL GET JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA... OR FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM IN MOIST GULF FLOW
UNDER A LESS-SUBSTANTIAL UPPER HIGH.  EITHER WAY... 20 PERCENT POPS
SEEMS APPROPRIATE.  THE POPS WE HAD FOR MONDAY WERE REMOVED SINCE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRO-RAIN FEATURES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   72  96  73  97 /  30   0   0  10
HBR   72  99  73  99 /  20  10  10  10
SPS   73 100  74 100 /  20  10  10  10
GAG   68  97  70  98 /  20   0  10  10
PNC   71  97  73  97 /  10   0  10  10
DUA   73  96  74  97 /  30  10  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-242100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED... ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS THAT
APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE ELEVATED STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY STRONG HEATING AND MIXING.  ANY
SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL DECREASE THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

SIX

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0125 PM    5 WNW EL RENO             OK   59 MPH WIND GUST
07/24/02   CANADIAN                       REPORTED BY MESONET.

TY

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-242200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THIS AREA AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S.  FAIRLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN PULSE SEVERE TYPE STORMS WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS OVER 65 MPH.  THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY
WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

SIX

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    YUKON                     OK   ESTIMATED 65 MPH WIND GUST
07/24/02   CANADIAN                       REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

TY