Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

RECENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANT
AMPLITUDE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR PROXIMITY OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF/SE TEXAS HAS ENHANCED
DEFORMATION/ASCENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. RESULT
EARLIER WAS ABUNDANT SEVERE TSRA THAT HAS EVOLVED RECENTLY INTO A
SLIGHTLY ORGANIZED AREA OF LINEAR CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEAR
TULSA SOUTHWESTWARD TO KNOX CITY IN TEXAS. COLD FRONT MARKS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF EXISTING CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA IN THE UPPER 40S. DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES SURFACE
PRESSURES AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WITH
ASSISTANCE OF ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BELIEVE CURRENT
TSRA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSRA
OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN LOW...AND MAINLY OVER A FEW OF OUR WEST TEXAS
COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE AIR IS STILL MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS NEAR 50 KNOTS. AIRMASS AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA APPEAR LESS FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

JAMES

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

VERY BUSY EVENING ON TAP AS ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF
A TREND THAT WILL CONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING EVENING AND
NIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
INITIALLY...THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCATTERED/DISCREET IN
NATURE ACROSS WRN/SWRN OK AND N TX...WHICH WILL KEEP TORNADO PROB
HIGHER THIS EVENING. AS EVENING WEARS ON SHOULD DEVELOP A LARGE
COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH WILL MARCH SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. AS EVENING WEARS ON FOCUS SHIFTS TO MORE STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS. ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING...WITH ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WHAT THEY ARE AND THAT SYSTEM
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH...DO NOT THINK IT WARRANTS FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING SE OKLAHOMA SAT
MORNING AND MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
TWO-THIRDS OF AREA.

WOULD LIKE TO BE ABLE TO FORECAST MORE SUNSHINE...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PACKAGE. WILL ALSO
TRY TO REMOVE SOME POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE THIS
TIME AROUND AND MRF ADVERTISES CONT CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WILL
BUY OFF ON THE MRF DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
WILL KEEP FRI DRY FOR NOW.

FCSTID =30
OKC   61  73  58  80 / 100  30  10  20
HBR   57  75  57  81 /  80  20  20  30
SPS   64  77  61  84 /  80  40  30  30
GAG   46  75  56  80 /  60  10  10  30
PNC   54  73  55  80 / 100  10  10  20
DUA   65  76  61  81 /  70  80  30  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0559 PM    1 E DUKE                  OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/24/02   JACKSON                        HAM RADIO SPOTTER

0719 PM    CHEROKEE                  OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/24/02   ALFALFA                        COUNTY SHERIFF

0730 PM    4 W CHILLICOTHE           TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/02   HARDEMAN                       HAM RADIO SPOTTER

0730 PM    4 W CHILLICOTHE           TX   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/24/02   HARDEMAN                       HAM RADIO SPOTTER

0920 PM    3 N NEWKIRK               OK   FLOODING
05/24/02   KAY                            US HWY 77 CLOSED DUE TO
                                          HIGH WATER REPORTED BY
                                          TONKAWA EOC

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0946 PM    1 W CUSHING               OK   66 MPH WIND GUST
05/24/02   PAYNE                          CUSHING EOC

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1039 PM    GOODLETT                  TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/02   HARDEMAN                       PUBLIC REPORT

KJ

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1059 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1055 PM    5 N QUANAH                TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/02   HARDEMAN                       SHERIFF DEPT.

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0822 PM    3 SW LOCKETT              TX   .75 INCH HAIL
05/24/02   HARDEMAN                       OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE

FM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1129 PM    OLUSTEE                   OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/24/02   JACKSON                        HAM RADIO SPOTTER

FM