Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS DEVELOPMENT CONINCIDES WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTO REGION OF WEAK FRONT/TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE AIRMASS INSTABILITY HAS
ALREADY RECOVERED. HOWEVER FARTHER EAST TOWARD INTERSTATE
35...BELIEVE SEVERAL HOURS ARE NEEDED TO ALLOW AIRMASS INSTABILITY
TO RECOVER. EXPECT TSRA OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NW OKLAHOMA TO
EXPAND EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OKLAHOMA. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND RECENTLY WITH
CELLS OVER CUSTER COUNTY OKLAHOMA HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT BACKBUILDING
CHARACTERSTICS WITH A HIGH LIKLIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONSIDER
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
DESPITE THE RECENT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

JAMES

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

ACTIVE NEXT 48 TO 72 HRS AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS AREA
WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN W/SW FLOW. HAVE SEEN
QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION TODAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONT
INTO EVENING HOURS AS SOME WAA CONT AT AROUND 700MB ABOVE CAPPING
INVERSION. SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY REORGANIZE CLOSER TO FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY SEE
LARGE COMPLEX DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST. WILL CONT WITH FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT OF POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT.

AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS KS ON FRI FRONT SHOULD
MOVE FARTHER SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL PUT THE BETTER CHANCES OF
RAIN INTO BODY OF OKLAHOMA AS POSSIBILITY EXIST FOR ANOTHER COMPLEX
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FRI AFTN AND EVENING. DEPENDING ON
WHAT HAPPENS LATER THIS EVENING...THIS COULD BE A BETTER TIMEFRAME
FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY. THIS FRONT WILL CONT TO ACT AS FOCUS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER WEEKEND AS IT CONT TO MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY
SOUTH...BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX BY SAT.

BY MONDAY WE GET ANOTHER DRY LINE ESTABLISHED ACROSS W TX AS THIS
FRONT WILL NOT SWEEP OUT THE MOISTURE LIKE THE LAST FEW FRONTS HAVE
DONE. WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT SOME LOW POPS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND WILL KEEP THESE GOING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED.

FCSTID = 30
OKC   63  78  60  73 /  40  30  60  30
HBR   63  80  57  75 /  40  30  60  30
SPS   65  83  64  78 /  30  20  50  40
GAG   59  76  47  74 /  60  40  40  20
PNC   61  74  55  73 /  80  60  60  20
DUA   61  74  55  73 /  80  60  60  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE