Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CST SUN MAR 24 2002

FIRST SURFACE BOUNDARY/DRY LINE HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED AND EXTENDED
FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...THEN UP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MAIN BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO
OOZE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE THE FIRST ONE THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
BEHIND FRONT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MAKE A RUN SOUTHWARD ALSO AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.

PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
MOST OF MARGINAL MOISTURE VALUES CREEPING EASTWARD WITH VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL NOT BE ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WE BELIEVE THAT MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES AS LAPSE RATES ARE VERY HIGH AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX THIS EVENING COULD GET SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY GOING. SNOW
WORDING WILL BE RETAINED ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN FORECAST FOR
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL PROBABLY BE
DRIZZLE/FOG...EXCEPT FOR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. MOST IF
NOT ALL OF LIFT WILL BE GONE MONDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON TUESDAY THROUGH END OF WEEK.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITES. MRF IS SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS...AND STILL INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT/PROGRESSION OF FIRST
SIGNIFICANT CUT-OFF OF THE YOUNG SPRING SEASON. WILL MODIFY GOING
FORECAST TO DELAY ONSET OF POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. IF MRF COMES
CLOSE TO VERIFYING...NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD AND WET
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NOT GO OVERBOARD AND JUST MENTION
CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS HANDLE
POTENTIAL CUT-OFF...RAIN SCENARIO COULD BE PUSHED BACK EVEN FURTHER
IN LATER FORECASTS.

FCSTID = 11

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
OKC   38  41  29  52 /  40  40  10   0
HBR   36  41  29  53 /  30  30   0   0
SPS   41  48  31  54 /  30  30   0   0
GAG   28  36  22  52 /  40  40  10   0
PNC   35  39  26  50 /  40  40  20   0
DUA   45  49  32  51 /  40  30  20   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.