Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2002

HAVE NOT HAD MUCH TIME TO LOOK OVER MODEL DATA WITH ALL THE STORMS
GOING ON TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH.  THERE IS A LOT OF TEMPORAL WORDING
IN THE ZONE FORECAST WHICH WILL NEED ATTENTION.  AT THIS TIME...
PLAN TO DO AN INTERIM UPDATE SHORTLY... THEN ANOTHER JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.  THIS UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS AND WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.  WE WILL RE-EVALUATE THINGS TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND ADJUST AGAIN AS NEEDED.

CMS

-----------------

140 PM WED MAY 8 2002

NOTE TO USERS: WE ARE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF FIXING SOME SOFTWARE
PROBLEMS. THUS..SOME PRODUCTS WILL STILL NOT BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
PACKAGE INCLUDING THE TABULAR AFPOKC..RDFOKC AND THE TABULAR AREA
FORECAST ON THE WEB PAGE. ALL OTHER PRODUCTS..INCLUDING THE FIRE WX
FORECAST ARE SLOWLY COMING BACK TO NORMAL. ISC GRIDS MAY BE A BIT
TARDY DUE TO RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DATABASE THRU DAY 7.

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW OVR WOODS COUNTY OK..WITH
DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD TO NEAR CHILDRESS AND COLD FRONT NOW INTO
FAR NW OK FROM MAY RANCH TO WOODWARD.  DRYLINE IS BEGINNING TO PUSH
EWD QUITE NICELY ACROSS WTEX..AND SHUD BE ABLE TO MIX A COUNTY OR
TWO INTO WRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THE ETA SO FAR THIS SPRING HAS
BEEN SYSTEMATICALLY TOO FAR EAST WITH THE DRYLINE POSITION AND TODAY
IS NO EXCEPTION.  WITH THAT IN MIND..POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SVR WX EPISODE EXISTS..ALTHOUGH CAPPING STILL REMAINS AN ISSUE WITH
AS ONE GOES FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST
RAPID SFC BASED DESTBILIZATION DUE TO MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY ACROSS SE KS..AND THIS MAY END UP BEING THE LOCATION OF
BEST FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER..IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CONT
TO BACK ACROSS NRN OK..AND THE CAP CAN FINALLY BE OVERCOME..A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT MAY EXIST THIS AREA AS WELL. 18Z OUN SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED..BUT
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED
SINCE 12Z. THE WARM NOSE OF THE CAP..AND THE MEAN EML TEMP OF THE
NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE AIR ABOVE HAS COOLED AS SUGGESTED BY
HGHT FALLS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ANALYZED ON THE 12Z UA ANAL.
AS NOCTURNAL LLJ ABATES AND DIURNAL PRESSURE FALLS COMMENCE..MESONET
ALREADY SHOWS SFC WINDS BACKING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THIS SHUD
CONT THRU 00Z.  ALL THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL FINALLY
BE OVERCOME IN OUR CWA TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SWD TONITE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE..AND WILL CONT POPS
ACCORDINGLY. FRONT WILL PROB BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THE SE ZONES
THAT THE ETA INDICATES AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SE FOR THUR.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN A TREK NWD FRI/FRI
NITE INTO A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL RETURN. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AHEAD OF FRONT ON SUNDAY..BUT WILL STILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS UNTIL
NEXT FRONT CLEARS THE AREA MONDAY.  AS OFTEN HAPPENS IN MAY..THE
MODELS ARE SLOWING THE SWD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT RUN..AND IT MAY TAKE ITS SWEET TIME MOVING SWD.  IF THIS
BOUNDARY MANAGES TO CLEAR THE AREA PER CURRENT ECMWF/MRF PROGS..SOME
VERY NICE MID MAY WX WILL BE IN STORE FROM MON-WED NEXT WEEK.
 MILLER

PRELIM NUMBERS..
OKC   55  70  48  73 /  40  10   0  20
HBR   51  68  49  73 /  20  10   0  20
SPS   60  72  54  76 /  20  10   0  20
GAG   45  66  42  70 /  10   0   0  10
PNC   49  67  45  70 /  40  10   0  10
DUA   66  74  52  75 /  30  30  10  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
922 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0917 PM    10 E ENID                 OK   70 MPH WIND GUST
05/08/02   GARFIELD                       REPORTED BY AMATEUR SPOTTER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
929 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0900 PM    6 NW BILLINGS             OK   BRIEF TORNADO IN
05/08/02   GARFIELD                       OPEN FIELD REPORTED
                                          BY OFF DUTY NWS
                                          EMPLOYEE

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 PM    ENID                      OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/08/02   GARFIELD                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0948 PM    3 W BRECKENRIDGE          OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/08/02   GARFIELD                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0950 PM    PONCA CITY                OK   .88 INCH HAIL
05/08/02   KAY                            REPORTED BY PONCA CITY EM

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0958 PM    WAUKOMIS                  OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/02   GARFIELD                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

0917 PM    8 S BILLINGS              OK   86 MPH WIND GUST
05/08/02   NOBLE                          MEASURED WIND REPORTED BY
                                          SPOTTER

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT WED MAY 08 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 PM    BILLINGS                  OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/08/02   NOBLE                          REPORTED BY BILLINGS FD